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EUR/USD posted minimal gains of 0.18% on Friday amid thin liquidity conditions, as markets in the United States are closed due to the Independence Day holiday. The shared currency is poised to close the week with gains of 0.53% despite the release of solid US economic data this week. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1778.

Economic news is scarce on Friday, still, market participants turned their attention to tariffs and the approval of US President Donald Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill.'

On Thursday, Trump announced that the United States would begin issuing declaration letters, notifying countries that tariffs are being applied to their goods and services. He added that the duties could be within the 10% to 70% range and would take effect on August 1. In the meantime, tensions around a Europe-US trade deal are rising, as Washington announced a 17% duty on European food.

In the meantime, Bloomberg reported that “Some European Union carmakers and capitals are pushing for an agreement with President Donald Trump that would allow for tariff relief in return for increasing investment in the US, according to people familiar with the matter.”

An absent economic docket in the US left EUR/USD traders adrift as they turned to the European Union’s (EU) docket. German Industrial orders fell below estimates in May every month, but compared to the figures from the same month in the previous year, showed a slight improvement.

Following Monday, the EU docket will feature German Industrial Production figures, the Eurogroup meeting, ECB speakers, and the announcement of Retail Sales data for May.

Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD climbs on light economic calendar

• US President Trump said his administration would begin notifying countries of new US tariffs on their exports, effective August 1. He said that about ten to twelve letters would be sent out on Friday. Additional letters will be distributed in the coming days, ahead of the July 9 deadline.
• The 'One Big Beautiful Bill' approved by the US Congress will add $3.4 trillion over a decade to the national deficit. The bill aimed to extend the tax cuts implemented in 2017 and allocate billions of dollars to defense and immigration enforcement. At the same time, it slashes some health care programs, food assistance, and clean energy projects.
• A Bloomberg article revealed that the EU and the US are nearing a technical trade agreement in principle. The EU hinted that they’re willing to accept a 10% universal tariff but in exchange for lower rates on pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and aircraft.They’re also seeking quotas and exemptions to lower current tariffs on cars, steel, and aluminum. Negotiations between both parties will continue over the weekend.
• German Factory Orders in May plunged 1.4% MoM from 1.6% expansion in April. In the twelve months to May, it dipped from 5.8% to 5.3%, revealed the Deutsche Bundesbank.

Euro technical outlook: EUR/USD bounces towards 1.1780 as bulls eye 1.1800

The EUR/USD is trading sideways on Friday and is poised to form a ‘bullish harami’ candlestick pattern, which hints, that the uptrend in the long-term remains intact. Nevertheless, a clear break of the July 3 high of 1.1809 is needed, ahead of testing the yearly high of 1.1830. Once those levels are cleared, the next stop would be 1.1850 and 1.1900.

Conversely, if EUR/USD tumbles below 1.1750, it opens the door to a potential decline to 1.1700. In the event of further weakness, the next support level will be the June 12 high at 1.1631. 

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