Trend turns bearish below $1.0945 as USD gains strength. Watch for potential short trades and US CPI data for key market directions.

My previous EUR/USD signal on 7^th March was not triggered as the bullish price action took place below the support level I had identified at $1.0881.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

• Risk 0.75%.
• Trades may only be taken before 5pm London time today.

(Click on image to enlarge)

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Short Trade Ideas

• Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0945, $1.0998, or $1.1030.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0914, $1.0867, or $1.0825.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

EUR/USD Analysis

In my previous analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair last Thursday, I wrote that the technical picture had become more bullish, being established above $1.0872. This was a good call as it was this precise level that acted as the low of the day which pushed the price meaningfully higher, although unfortunately I had adjusted the level about 10 pips higher.

The price continued to rise over the past few days, along with a general decline in the US Dollar, and this helped push the price to new highs above $1.0900. However, the resistance level at $1.0945 is looking strong and seems to be pushing the price down. I think the question is whether the $1.0900 area will hold now. If the price breaks below $1.0900 it will likely fall to at least $1.0867.

A short trade from $1.0945 is also a potential setup worth looking out for.

The price will likely consolidate between $1.0914 and $1.0945 until the US CPI (inflation) data release later today, which could push the price anywhere regardless of any technical factors on the chart.

Regarding the USD, there will be a release of CPI (inflation) data at 12:30pm London time followed by the 10-Year Bond Auction at 17:01pm. There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the EUR.

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