My previous EUR/USD signal on 17^th July may have produced a losing short trade from $1.0945 on the price action, even though this turned out to be a very correct resistance level which would have produced a great trade on the second test that day.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

• Risk 0.75%.
• Trades must be entered prior to 5pm London time today.

  (Click on image to enlarge)

Short Trade Ideas

• Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0874 or $1.0907.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0840, $1.0833, or $1.0795.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

EUR/USD Analysis

In my previous EUR/USD forecast on 17^th July, I wrote that I was looking for a bullish close at the end of the New York session above $1.0920 before entering a long trade. This set up at the end of the day, but unfortunately, the price has been falling ever since.

We see some more bearish developments in this currency pair over the past day:

• The breakdown below the medium-term ascending price channel.
• The breakdown completed with a head and shoulders pattern, with a broken neckline at about $1.0874.

Despite these bearish developments, we see a strong bullish inflection just above the support zone that starts at $1.0840. This suggests there is strong short-term bullish momentum, so the price may rise to test what is likely to be new resistance at $1.0874 or even $1.0860.

I think price action here is still likely to be quite choppy, so I am happy to look for scalping trades off any support or resistance levels, with $1.0874 and $10840 each looking likely to produce short-term reversals.

Concerning the EUR, there will be releases of German and Franch Manufacturing and Services PMI data between 8:15 and 8:30am London time. Regarding the USD, there will be releases of the same in the USA at 2:45pm.

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