The EUR/USD forecast is pessimistic as the euro remains fragile following disappointing PMI data from the Eurozone. In contrast, business activity in the US improved.

Data on Wednesday showed a decline in Eurozone business activity in July. The composite PMI fell from 50.9 in June to 50.1. According to experts, the decline indicates that the recovery in the Eurozone economy has stalled. Furthermore, the manufacturing sector performed poorly, especially in Germany. In the bloc, the manufacturing PMI hit a 7-month low of 45.6 in July. Moreover, economists predict the economy will grow an average of 0.7% in 2024 and 1.4% in 2025. 

Ideally, a weak economy would increase European Central Bank rate cut bets. However, the outlook remains unclear because policymakers have said inflation remains high. Still, economists expect another ECB cut in September. 

Meanwhile, the composite PMI rose to 55.0 in the US, indicating increased business activity. Although markets are fully pricing a cut in September, economists have warned policymakers might maintain caution. Notably, the US economy remains resilient, meaning demand remains high. Therefore, if the Fed cuts too early, inflation might spike. 

Investors will watch the first Q2 GDP estimate later for more clues on the Fed’s rate cut outlook. Forecasts show that the US economy expanded by 2.0%. This would be an improvement from the first quarter growth of 1.4%.

EUR/USD key events today

• US advance GDP q/q
• US unemployment claims

EUR/USD technical forecast: Bulls resurface in the downtrend to retest the 30-SMA

(Click on image to enlarge)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

On the technical side, the EUR/USD price is in a new bearish trend after breaking below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI has broken below 50 to support bearish momentum. Notably, bears took over when the price neared the 1.0950 resistance level. However, the decline was initially weak, with the price making small-bodied candles. Additionally, it was sticking close to the SMA.

Now, the price has found its footing below the SMA, but it is pulling back. It might retest the SMA before continuing to the 1.0800 support level. The downtrend will continue if the price stays below the SMA and the RSI below 50.

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