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• The EUR/USD currency pair returned to its bearish ways on Friday.
• A broad upswing in the Dollar Index continued to pummel the euro.
• Coming up next week: Daylight Savings Time, Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices data for the EU, US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index figures, and US Nonfarm Payrolls.

The EUR/USD currency pair trimmed a near-term rebound on Friday, as it slammed the door on a clean bullish recovery and kept bids trapped near the 1.0800 handle to round out the trading week. The pair shed another half of a percent from Monday’s opening bids, chalking in a fourth straight losing week and dragging price action down even further from late September’s peak just north of 1.1200.

Markets will kick off next week with the start of Daylight Savings Time across the European continent, shifting market open hours by an hour. The front half of the trading week will be a sedate affair, with euro traders looking ahead to Wednesday’s European growth update.

Pan-EU Gross domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to hold steady in the third quarter, forecast to print in-line with the previous quarter’s 0.2%. Meanwhile, the annualized growth figure is expected to tick upwards from 0.6% to 0.8% year-over-year.

Next Thursday will round out the euro’s representation on the economic calendar, with preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation for October. Headline EU HICP inflation is expected to rise to 1.9% year-over-year compared to the previous period’s 1.7%.

Next week will be a big showing for US dollar traders. US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCEPI) figures land on Thursday, followed by another round of monthly US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) jobs data on Friday.

Core US PCEPI is expected to have ticked higher in September, forecast to print at 0.2% month-over-month compared to August’s 0.1%. US NFP net jobs additions are expected to cool off to a moderate 140,000 net new jobs added in October, down from the previous month’s blowout 254,000 print.

EUR/USD Price Forecast

The EUR/USD pair was recently seen trading below the 50-day EMA and 200-day EMA, signaling a bearish sentiment in the market. This recent price action showed a strong downward momentum from early October, where the price broke below the 50-day EMA and continued to dip beneath the 200-day EMA, further confirming the bearish bias.

The recent price near the 1.0795 level appeared to be testing a support zone, as evidenced by the small-bodied candles, suggesting some consolidation or an indecisive phase. If support holds, we could see a temporary pullback towards the 1.0899 resistance level, coinciding with the 200-day EMA. However, a failure to break higher could invite further downside pressure in the coming days.

The MACD histogram showed weakening negative momentum, but the signal lines remained in bearish territory, suggesting that sellers were still in control despite a possible short-term correction. If the price fails to break above the 50-day EMA near the 1.0962 mark, the pair could extend its decline.

Smart Money Concepts (SMC) traders may have noted the formation of a liquidity grab below previous lows, potentially indicating institutional accumulation for a pullback. However, unless key resistance zones are reclaimed, the overall structure remains bearish, and a break below the 1.0750 mark could open the door for further losses toward the 1.0650 area.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

(Click on image to enlarge) 

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