EUR/USD Churned But Found Fresh Friday Highs After US NFP Sparked Rate Cut Hopes

10 and one 10 us dollar bill

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  • The EUR/USD currency pair clipped into the 1.0840 area after the broad-market risk appetite rally seen following the US NFP print.
  • Sharp NFP revisions reignited hopes for a September Fed rate cut.
  • Coming up next week: Fed Chair Powell, US CPI print, German Retail Sales.

The EUR/USD currency pair whipsawed after a mixed US Nonfarm Payrolls print on Friday before it settled the week on the high side. The currency cross tapped in a peak bid near the 1.3840 mark just ahead of the trading week’s close.

European Industrial Production fell steeper than expected on Friday, contracting -2.5% month-over-month in May and hobbling risk appetite. Pan-EU Retail Sales beat forecasts, printing at 0.3% year-over-year versus the expected 0.1%, but still eased from the previous 0.6%.

Investors appeared to have ignored the better-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls report and were instead paying attention to increasing unemployment, slowing wage growth, and downward revisions to previous job reports. As a result, they increased their bets that the Federal Reserve will be pushed to cut interest rates sooner rather than later. The CME's FedWatch Tool showed on Friday that the rate markets have been pricing in an almost 80% probability of at least a quarter-point rate cut on Sept. 18.

Meanwhile, Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls exceeded median market forecasts by adding 206,000 net new jobs in June. This figure was higher than the expected 190,000, but the previous month's number was revised down sharply to 218,000 from the initial 272,000.

The growth in US Average Hourly Earnings for the year ending June slowed to the expected 3.9% year-over-year reading from the previous period's 4.1%. Additionally, the US Unemployment Rate increased to 4.1%, marking the first rise since December 2021. This was slightly higher than the expected 4.0% hold forecasted by the market.

Traders will be looking out for an appearance from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday, followed by final inflation figures from both the EU and the US on Thursday. Next Friday will close out the week with German Retail Sales, as well as US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index survey results.

Economic Indicator: Nonfarm Payrolls

The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board.

Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US dollar, while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews ​and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.

  • Last release: Friday, July 5, 2024
  • Frequency: Monthly
  • Actual: 206,000
  • Consensus: 190,000
  • Previous: 272,000
  • Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

EUR/USD Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair drifted into the high end in largely one-sided trading this week, climbing from the early week’s low bids near the 1.0710 figure. The pair climbed 1.25% bottom-to-top through the trading week, and chalked in seven consecutive trading days in the green.

Bidders in this space have extended price action north of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0784, but a rough descending channel could still be pricing in downside technical pressure just above the 1.0860 mark.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

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EUR/USD Daily Chart

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