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EUR/USD steadies during Friday’s North American session set to finish the week and November’s in positive territory with gains o 0.81% and 0.59%, respectively as traders seem certain that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December. The pair trades at 1.1601 after bouncing off daily lows of 1.1555.

Euro ends week and month higher as dovish Fed signals outweigh mixed US data

The US Dollar treads water amid growing speculation for a rate cut. Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the odds for a 25-basis points reduction to the fed funds rate at 87% for the December meeting. The repricing was triggered by dovish comments of New York Fed John Williams and Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who favored reducing borrowing costs at the December meeting.

Data was mixed during the week. Inflation in the producer side stabilized, while jobs data revealed by the US Department of Labor, showed that the number of Americans filling for unemployment benefits, trimmed compared to the previous print.

Across the pond, Retail Sales in Germany missed estimates of October, while the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for November exceeded forecasts, approaching the 3% threshold. In France, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q3 was aligned with estimates and the preliminary reading, while Spanish HICP broke the 3% threshold.

Given the backdrop, the EUR/USD path of least resistance is tilted to the upside, as the European Central Bank (ECB) hinted that its easing cycle was over, while the Fed is expected to cut in December.

Next week’s US economic calendar will be packed, featuring the November ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, Industrial Production, the ADP Employment Change report, and Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 29.

Daily market movers: Euro poised to extend gains amid Dollar weakness

• The shared currency is propelled by a weak US Dollar as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY). DXY, which tracks the buck’s value against a basket of six peers, is down 0.08% at 99.44.
• German’s HICP annual rate rose by 2.6% above forecasts of 2.4%, up from 2.3% in September. Other data in France, GDP for Q3 2025 rose by 0.1% QoQ beating forecasts and up from 0% in Q2.
• Finally, Spain’s HICP expanded by 3.1% YoY in November, down from 3.2% a month ago, but exceeded forecasts of 2.9%.

Technical Outlook: EUR/USD subdued around 1.1600 waiting for catalyst

EUR/USD continues to trade sideways, with buyers unable to decisively break above the 1.1600 threshold to extend the advance toward the confluence of the 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 1.1620/1.1643. Momentum remains mildly positive, as reflected by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), although the indicator has flattened—suggesting that consolidation is likely to persist in the near term.

A clear breakout above the 50-/100-day SMA cluster would expose 1.1650, and once cleared, open the way for a test of the 1.1700 handle.

On the flip side, the Euro tumbling below 1.1550 increases the risk of a slide toward 1.1500. Further weakness would expose the November 5 swing low at 1.1468, followed by the 200-day SMA near 1.1431.

(Click on image to enlarge)

EUR/USD daily chart

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