Elliott Wave Counts For Gold, SP500, And GDX

By Stewart Thomson of Captain Ewave
Tuesday, January 24, 2017 12:09 PM EDT

Gold: 

Short Term Update:

Gold made a marginal new high in yesterday’s day session reaching 1219.50, and in the overnight session we retreated to a low of 1211.00, at the time that this Post was being written.

We still expect further upside within our current wave *i*, although we cannot now rule the possibility at all of wave *i* ended at the 1219.50 high and we are now starting a larger wave *ii* correction. 

A break and close above the 1220.00 level should see a quick run to the 1245.00 level, which could mark the end of wave *i*, as shown on the Daily Gold Chart.

Currently on the Intraday Chart the rallies in gold look impulsive and the setbacks corrective which suggest higher prices are still ahead. So far the first impulsive sequence does NOT look complete at the 1219.50 high, but we need to be on guard for end of wave *i* soon, unless it extends. As you can see on the Daily Gold Chart we have shown graphically what the current rally in gold looks like as we are still just working on wave *i* of .i. of -iii-.  A run to resistance at the 1244.00 level seems a likely place for wave *i* to end.

Our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii- is :

-iii-=1.618-i-=1661.80;

-iii-=2.618-i-=1993.70.

Our current count for all of wave -iii- is:

.i.:

*i* = 1219.50, if complete;

*ii* correction is next, after wave *i* ends.

When wave *i* ends we should expect wave *ii* to retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave *i* rally.

Longer Term Update:

Gold looks to have completed its wave -ii- correction, at the 1124.30 low., and we are now rallying in the early stages of wave -iii-.We have updated the Weekly Gold Chart showing our projections for the end of wave -iii-.  

Active Trading Positions: Long 30 positions, with puts at 1250.00!

S&P500: 

Short Term Update:

The S&P was generally flat in yesterday’s day session and in the overnight session the S&P Futures are unchanged, at the time that this Post was being written.  

The S&P is now within a whisper of our projected end of for all of wave -iii- which is 2285.92, so we need to be on guard for end of the -iii- and the start of significant drop in wave -iv-.

The final top in the S&P is still likely to occur early in 2017.                                                                                                

Long Term Update:

Wave (v) has become a diagonal triangle. We could now be complete all of wave .c. of -iii- at the 2282.10 high. Upon completion of wave -iii-, we expect a wave -iv- drop followed by a wave -v- rally.

Active Trading Positions: Short with 2280 calls as stops!

GDX:

Short Term Update:

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading session and if wave *i* is not complete in gold at the 1219.50 high, then we expect further gains in wave (i), as shown on the Daily GDX Chart.

If wave *i* in gold is complete at the 1218.80 high then wave (i) in the GDX is complete at the 23.56 high and wave (ii) is about to begin. If wave (ii) is underway then we expect that it will retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (i) rally. We will start labelling the internal wave structure of wave 3 after our first impulsive sequence ends. 

The wave 3 rally in the GDX will likely follow the same graphically picture that we have shown on the Daily Gold Chart. Our first and second projection for end of wave 3 is:

3=1.618(1)=49.95;

3=2.618(1)=68.98

As with gold and silver this wave 3 impulsive sequence will consist of 5 subdivisions.  

Long Term Update:

In the GDX, we now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79 and that wave 2 at the 18.68 low also.  A sharp wave 3 rally is now underway.

Disclosure:  Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!

Free Trades ...

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Chee Hin Teh • 8 years ago • Member's comment

Thanks for sharing