Earnings Season Thus Far

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It became clear last week that earnings season is upon us, with several key stocks reporting. This week promises to be even more consequential, with the largest amount of S&P 500 companies reporting – including four of the “Mag 7” stocks.We ran some numbers to see how the market has been responding thus far.

From July 1st through Friday, July 25th, 150 of the S&P 500 (SPX) constituents have reported their earnings.That constitutes exactly 30% of the index components.Yet when we calculated the approximate index weights of the companies that have reported thus far, we found that their cumulative weights only comprise about 27.5% of the index.An exercise of this sort reminded me just how top-heavy the index is.That is an important consideration when four of the five largest index components, comprising just under 20% of SPX’ weight, release earnings this week.They are of course Microsoft (MSFT, #2), Apple (AAPL, #3), Amazon (AMZN, #4), and Meta Platforms (META, #6).(Nvidia (NVDA, #1) reports in about a month and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL, combined #5) reported last week)

For further perspective, the arithmetic average of the index weights of the companies that reported since July 1st is about .183%, but the median is 0.09%.That means that 75 of the 150 companies in the analysis have index weights of 0.09% or less. For perspective, the weights of the largest companies to report this month are GOOG+GOOGL at 3.75%, Tesla (TSLA) at 1.63%, and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) at 1.53%.This is why we calculated weighted averages after doing the first pass on the raw numbers.

We always hear how some huge majority of stocks reported better than expected earnings.It’s not really news when 75-85% of companies beat their published consensus estimates in any given quarter.It says as much about how well companies manage their analysts as much as it does about how well they manage their businesses.

As a result, we focused upon the market’s reaction instead.We used the post-earnings moves – later that day for morning releases, the next-day for afternoon releases – as the basis for comparison.

The raw numbers say that the results so far are pretty good. Of the 150 companies in the survey, 83 of them, or 55.3%, rose after they reported earnings. The average move was +0.42%, with a median of +0.935%. Not bad at all.

The values changed when we adjusted for each company’s weight in SPX. The average post-earnings move reverted to a slight loss of -0.087%, though the median was still positive at 0.053%. 

This bears watching. My interpretation is that the more heavily scrutinized the company, the higher the unstated expectations – the “whisper numbers”, so to speak.Think about the market’s reaction to GOOGL earnings.They beat on every measure, yet the stock only rose about 1%.Meanwhile, a whole bunch of relatively obscure stocks – at least to average investors – did quite well after positive surprises.The bar is higher for the most highly valued companies – something to keep in mind ahead of this week’s key results. 

Post-earnings Results of SPX Companies Reporting June 1-25, 2025

    Post-Earnings Approximate  % Change x  
Symbol Release Date % Change SPX Weight % Weight  
STZ 7/1/2025 4.48 0.05 0.224  
CAG 7/10/2025 -4.37 0.02 -0.087  
DAL 7/10/2025 11.99 0.07 0.839  
FAST 7/14/2025 4.16 0.10 0.416  
BK 7/15/2025 -0.09 0.13 -0.012  
BLK 7/15/2025 -5.88 0.30 -1.764  
JBHT 7/15/2025 1.73 0.02 0.035  
OMC 7/15/2025 4.62 0.03 0.139  
STT 7/15/2025 -7.29 0.06 -0.437  
JPM 7/15/2025 -0.74 1.53 -1.132  
WFC 7/15/2025 -5.48 0.50 -2.740  
C 7/15/2025 3.68 0.33 1.214  
KMI 7/16/2025 -1.50 0.10 -0.150  
PGR 7/16/2025 1.76 0.27 0.475  
PLD 7/16/2025 1.43 0.19 0.272  
UAL 7/16/2025 3.11 0.05 0.156  
BAC 7/16/2025 -0.26 0.58 -0.151  
GS 7/16/2025 0.90 0.41 0.369  
MS 7/16/2025 -1.27 0.33 -0.419  
JNJ 7/16/2025 6.19 0.75 4.643  
MTB 7/16/2025 -2.41 0.06 -0.145  
PNC 7/16/2025 0.93 0.14 0.130  
ABT 7/17/2025 -8.52 0.06 -0.511  
CTAS 7/17/2025 3.69 0.14 0.517  
ELV 7/17/2025 -12.22 0.12 -1.466  
MMC 7/17/2025 -0.44 0.19 -0.084  
NFLX 7/17/2025 -5.10 0.92 -4.692  
PEP 7/17/2025 7.45 0.36 2.682  
SNA 7/17/2025 7.92 0.03 0.238  
TRV 7/17/2025 3.81 0.11 0.419  
CFG 7/17/2025 3.94 0.04 0.158  
FITB 7/17/2025 -1.02 0.05 -0.051  
GE 7/17/2025 -2.22 0.53 -1.177  
USB 7/17/2025 -1.03 0.13 -0.134  
AXP 7/18/2025 -2.35 0.32 -0.752  
MMM 7/18/2025 -3.65 0.15 -0.548  
SCHW 7/18/2025 2.90 0.31 0.899  
SLB 7/18/2025 -3.89 0.10 -0.389  
HBAN 7/18/2025 1.59 0.05 0.080  
RF 7/18/2025 6.12 0.04 0.245  
TFC 7/18/2025 -1.69 0.11 -0.186  
ARE 7/21/2025 3.09 0.02 0.062  
DPZ 7/21/2025 -0.80 0.03 -0.024  
ROP 7/21/2025 1.31 0.11 0.144  
STLD 7/21/2025 -1.70 0.03 -0.051  
WRB 7/21/2025 1.09 0.04 0.044  
NXPI 7/21/2025 -0.12 0.10 -0.012  
VZ 7/21/2025 4.04 0.33 1.333  
AVY 7/22/2025 1.49 0.05 0.075  
BKR 7/22/2025 11.64 0.08 0.931  
CB 7/22/2025 -3.08 0.18 -0.554  
COF 7/22/2025 0.94 0.25 0.235  
CSGP 7/22/2025 6.86 0.07 0.480  
DGX 7/22/2025 7.08 0.03 0.212  
DHR 7/22/2025 0.98 0.24 0.235  
EFX 7/22/2025 -8.18 0.06 -0.491  
ENPH 7/22/2025 -14.16 0.01 -0.142  
EQT 7/22/2025 -4.38 0.06 -0.263  
GPC 7/22/2025 7.60 0.03 0.228  
HAL 7/22/2025 0.99 0.04 0.040  
IPG 7/22/2025 6.95 0.02 0.139  
IQV 7/22/2025 17.88 0.06 1.073  
ISRG 7/22/2025 -1.77 0.33 -0.584  
IVZ 7/22/2025 5.20 0.02 0.104  
KO 7/22/2025 -0.59 0.49 -0.289  
LMT 7/22/2025 -10.81 0.16 -1.730  
MSCI 7/22/2025 -8.91 0.08 -0.713  
NOC 7/22/2025 9.41 0.14 1.317  
PCAR 7/22/2025 6.10 0.10 0.610  
PHM 7/22/2025 11.52 0.04 0.461  
PNR 7/22/2025 0.01 0.03 0.000  
RTX 7/22/2025 -1.58 0.39 -0.616  
SHW 7/22/2025 -0.36 0.14 -0.050  
SYF 7/22/2025 1.76 0.05 0.088  
TXN 7/22/2025 -13.34 0.31 -4.135  
DHI 7/22/2025 16.98 0.07 1.189  
GM 7/22/2025 -8.12 0.09 -0.731  
KEY 7/22/2025 2.35 0.03 0.071  
PM 7/22/2025 -8.43 0.46 -3.878  
BSX 7/23/2025 4.46 0.29 1.293  
CCI 7/23/2025 3.81 0.09 0.343  
CME 7/23/2025 0.67 0.19 0.127  
CMG 7/23/2025 -13.34 0.12 -1.601  
CSX 7/23/2025 0.09 0.12 0.011  
FCX 7/23/2025 -2.10 0.12 -0.252  
FI 7/23/2025 -13.85 0.14 -1.939  
GD 7/23/2025 6.50 0.15 0.975  
GEV 7/23/2025 14.58 0.32 4.666  
GL 7/23/2025 5.38 0.02 0.108  
GOOG 7/23/2025 0.88 1.68 1.478  
GOOGL 7/23/2025 1.02 2.07 2.111  
HAS 7/23/2025 -0.94 0.02 -0.019  
HLT 7/23/2025 -2.55 0.12 -0.306  
LII 7/23/2025 6.59 0.04 0.264  
LW 7/23/2025 16.31 0.02 0.326  
MCO 7/23/2025 1.76 0.15 0.264  
MOH 7/23/2025 -16.84 0.02 -0.337  
NEE 7/23/2025 -6.09 0.27 -1.644  
NOW 7/23/2025 4.16 0.37 1.539  
NVR 7/23/2025 -0.12 0.04 -0.005  
ORLY 7/23/2025 2.87 0.15 0.431  
OTIS 7/23/2025 -12.38 0.07 -0.867  
PKG 7/23/2025 -0.19 0.03 -0.006  
ROL 7/23/2025 5.20 0.03 0.156  
T 7/23/2025 1.20 0.37 0.444  
TDY 7/23/2025 -1.69 0.05 -0.085  
TEL 7/23/2025 11.95 0.11 1.315  
TMO 7/23/2025 9.14 0.33 3.016  
TMUS 7/23/2025 5.80 0.21 1.218  
TSLA 7/23/2025 -8.20 1.63 -13.366  
URI 7/23/2025 8.96 0.11 0.986  
IBM 7/23/2025 -7.62 0.44 -3.353  
LUV 7/23/2025 -11.16 0.03 -0.335  
RJF 7/23/2025 3.71 0.06 0.223  
APH 7/23/2025 -1.05 0.23 -0.242  
NTRS 7/23/2025 -1.82 0.05 -0.091  
ALLE 7/24/2025 6.03 0.03 0.181  
AMP 7/24/2025 -3.70 0.09 -0.333  
AOS 7/24/2025 3.59 0.02 0.072  
BX 7/24/2025 3.58 0.24 0.859  
CNP 7/24/2025 1.94 0.05 0.097  
DECK 7/24/2025 11.35 0.03 0.341  
DLR 7/24/2025 1.17 0.10 0.117  
DOC 7/24/2025 -6.73 0.02 -0.135  
DOV 7/24/2025 -2.24 0.05 -0.112  
EW 7/24/2025 5.54 0.09 0.499  
HON 7/24/2025 -6.18 0.27 -1.669  
INTC 7/24/2025 -8.53 0.17 -1.450  
KDP 7/24/2025 0.21 0.08 0.017  
LH 7/24/2025 6.86 0.04 0.274  
LHX 7/24/2025 1.34 0.09 0.121  
MHK 7/24/2025 4.22 0.01 0.042  
NDAQ 7/24/2025 5.91 0.07 0.414  
NEM 7/24/2025 6.89 0.13 0.896  
POOL 7/24/2025 3.00 0.02 0.060  
TSCO 7/24/2025 -0.47 0.06 -0.028  
TXT 7/24/2025 -7.20 0.03 -0.216  
UNP 7/24/2025 -4.54 0.25 -1.135  
VLO 7/24/2025 -4.88 0.08 -0.390  
VRSN 7/24/2025 6.67 0.05 0.334  
WAB 7/24/2025 -6.38 0.06 -0.383  
WST 7/24/2025 22.78 0.03 0.683  
WY 7/24/2025 3.08 0.04 0.123  
DOW 7/24/2025 -17.45 0.03 -0.524  
LKQ 7/24/2025 -17.82 0.02 -0.356  
CNC 7/25/2025 6.09 0.03 0.183  
AON 7/25/2025 4.57 0.15 0.686  
CHTR 7/25/2025 -18.49 0.05 -0.925  
PSX 7/25/2025 0.52 0.09 0.047  
HCA 7/25/2025 -2.10 0.11 -0.231  
AVERAGE 0.424 0.183 -0.087  
UP Moves 83 150 83 55.33%
Total 150 150 150  
Median 0.935 0.090 0.053  
Std Dev 7.07 0.30 1.59  

Source: Interactive Brokers, Bloomberg


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Disclosure: The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the ...

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