Earnings Preview: Google

As we find ourselves in the midst of yet another earnings season, I wanted to take a closer look at the upcoming earnings for one particular company in the technology sector and share my thoughts on what needs to happen in order for Google Inc. (GOOG, GOOGL) to meet and/or surpass analysts' expectations.

Company Overview

Headquartered in Mountain View, California, Google Inc. is a technology company, builds products and provides services to organize the information. The company offers Google Search, which provides information online; Knowledge Graph that allows to search for things, people, or places, as well as builds systems that recognize speech and understand natural language; Google Now, which provides information to users when they need it; and Product Listing Ads that offer product image, price, and merchant information.

Recent Trend Behavior

On Wednesday, shares of GOOG (which currently possess a market cap of $358.51 billion, a forward P/E ratio of 17.93, and a PEG ratio of 1.76), settled at a price of $530.03/share . Based on their closing price of $530.03/share, shares of GOOG are trading 7.31% below their 20-day simple moving average, 7.76% below their 50-day simple moving average, and 5.68% below their 200-day simple moving average.

Also on Wednesday, shares of GOOGL (which currently possess a market cap of $362.22 billion, a forward P/E ratio of 17.15, and a PEG ratio of 1.64), settled at a price of $540.73/share . Based on their closing price of $540.73/share, shares of GOOGL are trading 7.12% below their 20-day simple moving average, 7.54% below their 50-day simple moving average, and 5.99% below their 200-day simple moving average.

These numbers indicate both a short-term and a long-term downtrend for both classes of stock, which generally translates into a selling mode for most near-term traders as well as a selling mode for many long-term investors.

If the company can demonstrate a stronger-than-expected earnings performance when it announces Q3 results on October 16, there's a very good chance the company's trend behavior will reverse course and move in a fairly positive upward direction.

Upcoming Earnings Outlook

When it comes to the company's upcoming Q3 earnings, there are a number of things potential investors should consider. For instance, analysts are currently calling for GOOG to earn $6.33/share in terms of EPS (which is $0.25/share higher than what the company had reported during Q2) and $13.22 billion in terms of revenue and for GOOGL to earn $6.53/share in terms of EPS and $16.58 billion in terms of revenue when the company's latest earnings are released on October 16.

In order to meet and/or exceed its quarterly EPS estimates, I'd like to see a 2%-to-3.5% increase in the company's Q3 Paid Clicks (as compared to Q2's Paid Clicks increase of 2%), a 3%-to-5% decrease in Operating Expenses (as compared to Q2's Operating Expenses of $5.58 billion), a 4%-to-6% increase in its Operating Income (as compared to Q2’s Operating Income of $4.26 billion), a 5%-to-7% increase in Net Income (as compared to Q2’s Net Income of $3.42 billion), and lastly, a 1.5%-to-3% increase in the company's cash position (as compared to Q2's cash position of $61.2 billion).

Recent Developments

On October 15, there were a number key developments that I strongly believe will not only benefit the company but will also assist in the improvement of its share price over the next 18-24months. For starters, Android 5.0, which was first unveiled as Android L at Google I/O features major UI changes (new colors, icons, animations, etc.) thanks to its use of Google's Material Design language. It also supports interactive lock-screen notifications, new voice commands, a new battery saver mode, and better content/app syncing between Android devices.

In addition to Android 5.0, Google also unveiled two tablet-related products. First, was the Nexus 6 Phablet which is a device that will sport an impressive 5.9" 2K display, a 13MP camera, a Qualcomm (QCOM) Snapdragon 805 CPU, and will be made exclusively by Motorola Mobility. The second of the two table-related launches was the Nexus 9 tablet, which will be made by HTC, and feature a high-res 8.9" display and be powered by Nvidia's Tegra K1 processor.

If either of these tablets can demonstrate solid sales right out of the gate, then there’s a very good chance that both GOOG and GOOGL will not only meet but easily surpass full-year earnings estimates that are calling for the company to earn $25.66/share and $26.40/share on revenues of $52.66 billion and $66.66 billion, respectively.

Conclusion

For those of you who may be considering a long-term position in Google Inc., I'd actually recommend keeping a closer eye on the company's upcoming earnings that are due on October 16, as a strong quarterly performance could fuel an improved trend performance over the next 20, 50 and 200 day periods. If the company meets or exceeds analysts’ estimates, there's a very good chance shares of GOOG will begin trading in the $560/share-to-$570/share range while shares of GOOGL will begin trading in a range of $575/share-to-$590/share before we know it.

Disclosure: I do not own a position in Google  but may consider establishing a position within the next 72 hours.

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