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The Census Department Advance Report on Durable Goods shows another drop in July.

New Orders

• New orders for manufactured durable goods in July, down three of the last four months, decreased $8.8 billion or 2.8 percent to $302.8 billion.
• This followed a 9.4 percent June decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1 percent.
• Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.5 percent.
• Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $10.9 billion or 9.7 percent to $101.7 billion.

Shipments

• Shipments of manufactured durable goods in July, up eight consecutive months, increased $4.3 billion or 1.4 percent to $307.5 billion.
• This followed a 0.7 percent June increase.
• Transportation equipment, up seven of the last eight months, led the increase, $2.3 billion or 2.3 percent to $101.5 billion.

Month-Over-Month Nondefence Aircraft Orders

• March: +158.5 percent
• April: -51.6 percent
• May: +231.6 percent
• June: -52.7 percent
• July: -32.7 percent

Aircraft orders have very long lead times and will not impact GDP any time soon.

Durable and Nondurable Goods New Orders

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Nondurable goods are not part of the advance report. Those numbers are through June 2025.

Durable and Nondurable Goods New Orders Change Since January

• Durable Goods: 4.0 percent
• Durable Goods Excluding Nondefense Aircraft: 3.1 percent
• Durable Goods Excluding Nondefense Aircraft and Defense: 2.4 percent
• Nondurable (through June): -1.0 percent
• Durable Goods Excluding Transportation (not shown): 2.2 percent

Economists often report on durable goods excluding transportation to smooth the volatility of aircraft orders. But that measure also strips out autos.

The above numbers, other than nondurable, look pretty good. However, those numbers do not include inflation.

Real Inflation-Adjusted Durable and Nondurable Goods New Orders

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Real Durable and Nondurable Goods New Orders Change Since January

• Durable Goods: 6.2 percent
• Durable Goods Excluding Nondefense Aircraft: 2.2 percent
• Durable Goods Excluding Nondefense Aircraft and Defense: 0.9 percent
• Nondurable (through June): -1.7 percent

Aircraft orders and defense spending are padding durable goods new orders.

Real durable goods new orders excluding nondefense aircraft and defense are only up 0.9 percent for the first seven months of the year.

Real nondurable goods orders are down 1.7 percent for the first half of 2025.

What appears to be a good set of numbers at first glance actually represents sustained weakening. Note the yellow and red lines in the above chart.

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