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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) snapped a two-day recovery on Friday, testing below the 44,400 level once again as equities grapple with a new reality where trade tariffs exist in a quantum state, prone to popping in and out of existence at a moment’s notice. President Donald Trump has been busy this week, laying out a raft of new tariff threats against a slew of countries after again suspending “reciprocal” tariffs that were announced in April.

President Trump is piling on additional double-digit tariffs on key trading allies of the US, including South Korea, Japan, and now Canada, as well as threatening a 50% tariff on all copper imports into the US. The new round of tariff threats are slated to come into effect on August 1 unless countries successfully negotiate acceptable trade deals with the Trump administration, the same day that Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs announced in early April are set to come into effect. The Liberation Day tariff announcements were quickly suspended for 90 days, which were then extended to August 1 in the runup to the July 9 deadline.

Equity markets ended on the back foot despite testing new highs through the midweek. Investors are gearing up for the start of the Q2 earnings season, as well as a fresh round of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures due next Tuesday. Headline CPI inflation data is expected to tick upwards in June, which will make it harder for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to step into a new rate-cutting cycle, much to the dismay of President Trump and some Fed policymakers who have been tilting toward summer rate cuts in an effort to make themselves more appealing as potential picks to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell when the Fed head’s term ends next year.

Dow Jones price forecast

The Dow Jones remains capped below the 45,000 major price handle, and a near-term pivot into fresh bullish momentum ran aground of geopolitical rocks this week, keeping intraday bids hobbled in the 44,400 region. Despite losing some footing this week, the Dow remains firmly buried in bull country, trading well north of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 42,330.

Dow Jones daily chart

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