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In this video, I will discuss how the US economy has become less cyclical over the last several decades due to the shrinking share of construction and manufacturing jobs and an increase in service sector jobs. However, despite this shift, data shows that the cyclical economy still drives almost all job losses around recessionary periods, with construction and manufacturing accounting for most of these losses. The video argues that traditional leading indicators that focus on these sectors remain appropriate and that analyzing the cyclical economy is essential to get advanced warnings of recessions. The services economy has never proven to be a warning signal for a recession, and thus, the current recessionary signal should not be ignored.

Video Length: 00:04:59

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