MORE DOWNSIDE FOR USD SHORT TERM!

The US Dollar has enetered a long term bear market and we are completing the initial Wave 2 counter rally! Expect further short term US$ weakness before looking for a US$ trading bounce after the Fed ends its hiking cycle May 3rd. Only then consider going short the greenback with a full understanding that any advancing financial crisis could trigger a temporary Flight-to-Safety of the US Dollar!

THE DOLLAR, YEN, EURO & YUAN

We believe during the October 2022 UK Budget debacle, resulting in the British PM resigning and forcing major BOE intervention to stabiize the situation, that a coordinated global central bank plan was implemented.

Additionally, a steadily rising US Dollar was in parallel wrecking havoc world wide and needed to be weakened to stabilize the global economy from the possible destabilizing impacts of the UK problems.

The major global currencies, as a consequence, all reflect abrupt reversals from their October lows with the US reversing downward from its peak. The counter rallies are now nearing overhead resistance while the US Dollar is reaching key support levels.

Though there is a little more to go, we should expect the prior trends in global currencies to soon resume their prior trends in the short to intermediate term

JPYUSD

Likely to find overhead resistance at its 80 WMA (Black MA)

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EURUSD

Likely to find ovrhead resistance at a 61.8% retracement (red line) of its prior downleg.

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CNYUSD

Likely to find overhead resistance at its 80 WMA (Black line) and underside of prior rising trend channel.

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DOUBLE CHARTS BELOW

The preponderance of economic analytic work that we have examined suggests further US Weakness going forward. However, if the unfolding global slowdown causes major financial disruptions, a dollar flight to safety can be expected despite the current media onslaught of negative US dollar news!

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DXY - SHORT TO INTERMEDIATE TERM

We currently seeing the US Dollar (DXY) further weakening to find suport at the 61.8% Fibinacci Retracement level (red line below). This should complete wave 5 of a larger degree Wave 4 within the Bear Market Wave 2 (see Long Term Count, bottom chart)

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(Click on image to enlarge)

PROPRIETARY MATASII CROSS

The proprietary MATASII Cross on a shorter term Daily chart is currently on a SELL Signal indicating a move towards the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Support level at ~99.208 on the DXY.

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DXY - LONGER TERM

Longer Term we still see the US Dollar completing its longer term lift to finish counter rally Wave 2. Our current sense is that this final wave will most likely be about serious global financial dislocations primarily resulting from an EU Banking crisis

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