Crude Oil Market Update - Monday, February 20

In the previous week the Crude oil market built up quite some tension. The balanced craziness keeps up with compression to compression. It is a dreamland for any short-term trader, I guess. And for any long-term trader it could be a situation of a nerve-wracking time. However, on the other hand if you take some time away from the daily chart, which is pretty messed up by the way, in order to analyze the higher time frames you can actually calm down your mood, I think. This way or another way, let’s take a look at some charts.

Firstly, the volume of the market rolled over from March to April, so please make sure to roll over your charts properly. Secondly to be noted is the U.S holiday of course. You can exclude/ban such days from your charts in Crude oil or accept it as a normal trading day, that’s your choice of preference. That said and looking now at the weekly perspective, we can observe that the market left us with an inside week. As you know, in that case we love to observe the price action around the extremes (high/low of previous week).

2017-02-20_21-03-57crudeoilweekly

Our daily bias would had been pretty bearish, in the case we accept the holiday as a trading day. Not specially because of the inside day but of the liquidity which the market built above the “swing highs” in our humble opinion. A look at the hourly chart reveals this possible theory. Or the market simply accepted that mentioned resistance level once again.

2017-02-20_21-18-39dailychart

Last but not least, we can take a look at the COT report again. As usual, we only observe the Managed Money sector which were net buying 32,945 contracts of WTI Crude oil in the week ended February 14 (ICE Europe + NYMEX, Options and Futures combined). Fresh new longs with short covering domination of 19,499 contracts. I guess, the next report will be more interesting because of the rollover from the March to the April contract. We should not conclude any bias from this data for now.

2017-02-20_21-37-43cotreport

This will be the last market update on Crude oil for a while as I am focus on other markets currently. It does not make sense to write about a market which I do not want to trade.

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Carl Schwartz 1 year ago Member's comment

Nice article, but with the "I guess" and "I think" you sound uncertain of yourself. You convinced me, now convince yourself! ;)

The Private Banker 1 year ago Author's comment

Thank you for the comment! I very appreciate it.

I will try my best :)