CPI Data from BLS, chart by Mish

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in July on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 1.3 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Key Points

• The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in August.
• Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.
• Increases in the shelter, food, and medical care indexes were the largest of many contributors to the monthly seasonally adjusted all items increase. 
• The food index continued to rise, increasing 0.8 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.7 percent. 
• The energy index fell 2.1 percent over the month as the gasoline index declined 4.9 percent but the natural gas and electricity indexes increased. 
• The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in September, as it did in August. 
• The indexes for shelter, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, new vehicles, household furnishings and operations, and education increased over the month.
• The indexes for used cars and trucks, apparel, and communication declined.

Bloomberg Econoday Consensus 

Economists at Bloomberg Econoday expected a 0.2 percent overall rise, and a 0.4 percent rise excluding food and energy. 

The Econoday consensus missed the mark badly vs a 0.4 percent overall rise and a 0.6 percent rise excluding food and energy.

CPI Year-Over-Year 

CPI year-over-year data from BLS, chart by Mish.

CPI Year-Over-Year Details 

• CPI: 8.2 Percent
• Rent of Primary Residence: 7.2 Percent
• CPI Less Food and Energy: 6.6 Percent
• OER: 6.7 Percent
• Shelter: 6.6 Percent
• Medical Care Services: 6.5%

Year-over-year the CPI is decelerating but all of that is due to energy. Inflation in the other five components is accelerating. 

Food (not shown) is up 10.8% year-over-year. It hit a year-over-year high last month of 10.9%.

CPI Energy

CPI energy data from BLS, chart by Mish.

Energy is the only bright spot in the CPI, as gasoline declined 7.7 percent in July, 10.6 percent in August, and another 4.9 percent in September. 

However, the composite energy index was down a modest 2.1 percent in September because natural gas rose 2.9 percent and the cost of electricity rose 0.4 percent.

Expect a CPI Energy Surge in October Due to Rising Gasoline Prices

Things do not look good looking ahead. Gasoline fell in September but October will be another matter.

As noted on October 9, I Expect a CPI Energy Surge in October Due to Rising Gasoline Prices

An Inflationary Quagmire 

President Biden's policies do not at all help, nor do actions in the state of California.

Please note the Inflationary Quagmire of US and EU Climate Change Hypocrisy

And in case you missed it, California Accuses Valero of Oil Price Gouging, Valero's Response is Amusing

Finally, please consider The Biden Oil Fiasco Continues With Export Control Threats

Looking Ahead

If rent prices jump again in October, look for further acceleration in the CPI because energy is poised for another surge.

Shelter is over 32 percent of the CPI.

More By This Author: