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Change in continued claims, data from Department of Labor, chart by Mish

I do not have a satisfactory explanation for 24 straight weeks of alternating up-down changes in continued claims. It’s unprecedented. I suppose it could be a random fluke albeit with an amazingly small likelihood.

For whatever reason or none at all, the pattern broke two weeks ago, followed by the smallest improvement in the weeks that did improve, then another big blast higher.

On Thursday, the US Department of Labor released Unemployment Claims for the week ending June 7, 2025.

Initial Unemployment Claims

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Initial unemployment claims, data from Department of Labor, chart by Mish

Initial Unemployment Claims Details

• In the week ending June 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 248,000, unchanged from the previous week’s revised level.
• The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 247,000 to 248,000. The 4-week moving average was 240,250, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised average.
• This is the highest level for this average since August 26, 2023 when it was 245,000. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 235,000 to 235,250.

Continued Unemployment Claims

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Continued unemployment claims, data from Department of Labor, chart by Mish

The breakout in continued claims makes for an ominous chart.

Continued Unemployment Claims Details

• The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 31 was 1,956,000, an increase of 54,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
• This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021 when it was 1,970,000.
• The previous week’s level was revised down by 2,000 from 1,904,000 to 1,902,000.
• The 4-week moving average was 1,914,500, an increase of 19,750 from the previous week’s revised average.
• This is the highest level for this average since November 27, 2021 when it was 1,923,500. The previous week’s average was revised down by 500 from 1,895,250 to 1,894,750.

For months we kept butting up against this Department of Labor Statement: This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021 when it was 1,970,000.

The ping-pong match has capped continued claims at that level. If the data alternates positive again next week, we might see the sentence again in two weeks. But this cap won’t hold.

DOGE and Federal Claims

• Initial claims for UI benefits filed by former Federal civilian employees totaled 561 in the week ending May 31, an increase of 23 from the prior week.
• There were 328 initial claims filed by newly discharged veterans, an increase of 33 from the preceding week.
• There were 6,315 continued weeks claimed filed by former Federal civilian employees the week ending May 24, a decrease of 404 from the previous week.
• Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 4,238, a decrease of 248 from the prior week.

The BLS shows a decline in Federal Employment since January of 59,000. But most of those laid off by DOGE actions are being paid through September, ineligible for claims.

About 75,000 accepted the paid deal in February, but some employees who accepted the offer were later told that their jobs were “mission critical” and were asked to reconsider.

I am unaware of official counts with more precise data. But it’s now June. A scramble for jobs may soon be underway by those who accepted the offer.

Final Thoughts

Tariffs and tariff uncertainty have now started to bite. Small businesses will be the ones most impacted.

Trump won an extended stay on reciprocal tariffs through July 31. And in early, July Trump said he will announce deals.

Also, Trump has recently increased tariffs on steel and aluminum. All of these actions and events are guaranteed job killers.

Expect a surge in unemployment claims.

However, BLS data and methods are so poor, it’s hard to say when this turns up in the jobs reports.

Related Posts

March 13, 2025: The Amazing “Success” of Trump’s 2018 Aluminum Tariffs in One Picture

I hope you can take a bit of headline sarcasm because the true story follows.

May 31, 2025: Trump Will Double Steel and Aluminum Tariffs to 50 Percent

Higher prices is the last thing US automakers need or small businesses need.

The US does not even make some of the steel small businesses need. If that is still the case after the Nippon deal, Trump will drive those small businesses out of business.

With the extended stay, Trump now has enough rope to hang the economy. I will cover the implications of the extended stay in a separate post.

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