Continued unemployment claims data by the Department of Labor, chart by Mish.

Continued Claims Key Points

• The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 15 was 1,839,000, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 27, 2021 when it was 1,878,000.
• The 4-week moving average was 1,816,000, an increase of 12,250 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the highest level for this average since December 4, 2021 when it was 1,859,750.

Initial Claims

Initial Claims Key Points

• In the week ending June 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 233,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
• The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 238,000 to 239,000.
• The 4-week moving average was 236,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 232,750 to 233,000.

Initial and Continued Claims Since 2000

(Click on image to enlarge)

Neither initial nor continued claims are ringing big alarm bells, at least from a level standpoint.

But the level is not the warning signal. Rather a sustained uptick from a relatively low level is the proper signal.

Still the chart itself is not that convincing. But the chart in conjunction with weakening data across the board is more convincing, especially the uptick in continued claims after going sideway for a year.

Data is weakening across then board. That’s the signal. Things no longer have a rolling recession look where one segment of the economy makes up for weakness elsewhere. Weakness is pervasive in housing, consumer spending, and durable goods orders.

More By This Author: