Michigan November final almost as low at June 2025:

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Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Red dashed line at “Liberation Day” Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, and author’s calculations.

If one used EJ Antoni’s (latest) definition of recession as “what Americans feel”, then a simple probit of recession indicator on sentiment (FRED mnemonic UMCSENT) would tell us that we’re in a recession now (as well as in 2022). Thankfully, legitimate economists don’t use this definition.

Michigan Sentiment mirrors News Sentiment as measured by the SF Fed’s index, excepting the first half of November:

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Figure 2: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (blue, left scale), and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) SF Daily News Sentiment Index (teal, right scale).The News Index observation for November is through 11/16/2025. Source: U.Mich via FRED, SF Fed, and author’s calculations.

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