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Consumer Sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, dropped slightly.
 

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University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Please consider the Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Report for October.

 Overall, consumers perceive very few changes in the outlook for the economy from last month. Pocketbook issues like high prices and weakening job prospects remain at the forefront of consumers’ minds. At this time, consumers do not expect meaningful improvement in these factors. Meanwhile, interviews reveal little evidence that the ongoing federal government shutdown has moved consumers’ views of the economy thus far.

Year-ahead inflation expectations ebbed from 4.7% last month to a still-high 4.6% this month. Long-run inflation expectations held steady at 3.7%. Inflation expectations for both time horizons are about midway between the readings seen a year ago and the highs seen this year in April and May in the wake of the initial announcements of major tariff changes.

The main index only dropped 0.1 percentage points to 55.0 from 55.1. However, the three-month moving average fell 2.2 percentage points, from 58.3 to 56.1.

Current Conditions vs. Expectations
 

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University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, current conditions vs. expectations

The current conditions index ticked higher from 60.4 to 61.0, but the three-month moving average fell from 63.4 to 61.0.

The expectations index ticked lower from 51.7 to 51.2. Once again the three-month moving average had a bigger swing to the downside from 55.1 to 52.9, a drop of 2.2 percentage points.

University of Michigan Consumer Inflation Expectations
 

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University of Michigan Consumer inflation expectations

Inflation expectations were basically unchanged. One-year expectations fell 0.1 percentage point to 4.6 percent, and five-year expectations were flat at 3.7 percent.

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October 5, 2025: Trump Adopts Chicago Cubs’ Perpetual Message, “Wait Till Next Year”:

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October 8, 2025: Consumer Credit Growth Stalls, Inflation-Adjusted Credit Declines:

Consumer credit is weak in nominal terms and negative in real terms.

And finally, please consider A Sharp Deterioration in Consumers’ Views of their Current Situation:

Consumer confidence declines again in September, led by current situation.

That report is by the highly respected Conference Board.

Key Points

• US consumer confidence fell in September to a five-month low on growing concerns about job prospects and the broader economy.
• A gauge of present conditions fell to the lowest level in a year, while a measure of expectations for the next six months also dropped in September.
• Expectations are below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead since February 2025.

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