108.7 vs. 99.5 (Bloomberg consensus). Is positive economic news percolating into surveys? From the Confidence Board today:

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Figure 1: UMich Consumer Sentiment (blue, left scale), Consumer Sentiment adjusted per Cummings-Tedeschi (red, left scale), and Conference Board Consumer Confidence (black, right scale), Bloomberg consensus (light blue square, right scale). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: University of Michigan via FRED, Conference Board, NBER.

Taking into account the adjusted UMich Consumer Sentiment index (per Cummings and Tedeschi (2024) discussed here) and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence index, consumer assessments of the economy are noticeably brighter than in previous readings.

The change in the Confidence index is pretty large (which is interesting when taken in addition to the positive revision to the September value).

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Figure 2: Change in Conference Board Consumer Confidence demeaned and normalized by standard deviation 2016-2024M10 (blue). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: Conference Board, NBER and author’s calculations.

The normalized change is 1.4 standard deviations – over a period marked by substantial movements.

Finally, with these readings, the link to news sentiment is re-established to some degree.

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Figure 3: UMich Consumer Sentiment adjusted per Cummings-Tedeschi (red), and Conference Board Consumer Confidence (black), and Shapiro-Sudhof-Wilson/SF Fed News Sentiment index (thru 10/27) (green), all demeaned and normalized by standard deviation. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: University of Michigan via FRED, Cummings-Tedeschi, Conference Board, SF Fed, NBER and author’s calculations.

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