US Consumer Confidence Tumbled Again

The Consumer Conference Board reports US Consumer Confidence Tumbled Again in March

Synopsis

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell by 7.2 points in March to 92.9 (1985=100).
• The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—decreased 3.6 points to 134.5.
• The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—dropped 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest level in 12 years and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.

Consumer Confidence and Expectations

Present Situation

• 17.7% of consumers said business conditions were “good,” down from 19.1% in February.
• 16.6% said business conditions were “bad,” up from 14.8%.

Expectations Six Months Hence

• 17.1% of consumers expected business conditions to improve, down from 20.8% in February.
• 27.3% expected business conditions to worsen, up from 25.5%.
• 16.7% of consumers expected more jobs to be available, down from 18.8% in February.
• 28.5% anticipated fewer jobs, up from 26.6% in February
• 16.3% of consumers expected their incomes to increase, down from 18.8% in February.
• 15.5% expected their income to decrease, up from 12.8%.

US Consumer Confidence Lowest Since Early 2021

Bloomberg reports US Consumer Confidence Tumbles Again to Lowest Since Early 2021

The Conference Board’s gauge of confidence decreased 7.2 points to 92.9, data released Tuesday showed. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a reading of 94.

A measure of expectations for the next six months dropped nearly 10 points to 65.2, the lowest in 12 years, while a gauge of present conditions declined more modestly.

Consumer sentiment surveys from The Conference Board and University of Michigan have been dismal of late as households fear a resurgence in inflation from President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Companies have warned of higher prices and less demand, coinciding with economists’ forecasts that suggest a risk of stagflation and rising odds of recession.

Inflation expectations over the coming year increased to the highest level in two years. A similar metric from the Michigan survey climbed in early March to the highest since 2022.

Spin the Tariff Wheel

The best way to restore confidence would be to stop tariff nonsense.

Instead, Trump heightens tariff uncertainty with on-again, off-again threats, with bigger threats on Canada and Mexico than China.

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