Please consider the Census Bureau's Construction Spending report for August 2022.

Total Construction 

Construction spending during August 2022 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,781.3 billion, 0.7 percent (±1.0 percent) below the revised July estimate of $1,793.5 billion. The August figure is 8.5 percent (±1.6 percent) above the August 2021 estimate of $1,641.6 billion. During the first eight months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,183.8 billion, 10.9 percent (±1.0 percent) above the $1,067.4 billion for the same period in 2021. 

Private Construction 

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,426.0 billion, 0.6 percent (±0.7 percent) below the revised July estimate of $1,435.2 billion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $912.9 billion in August, 0.9 percent (±1.3 percent) below the revised July estimate of $921.6 billion. Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $513.1 billion in August, 0.1 percent (±0.7 percent) below the revised July estimate of $513.6 billion.

Public Construction 

In August, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $355.3 billion, 0.8 percent (±1.8 percent) below the revised July estimate of $358.3 billion. Educational construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $77.6 billion, 0.4 percent (±1.8 percent) below the revised July estimate of $78.0 billion. Highway construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $102.0 billion, 1.4 percent (±4.8 percent) below the revised July estimate of $103.4 billion.  

Margins of Error 

• The margin of error for construction spending is (±1.0 percent). 
• This contrasts sharply with the Census Bureau's margins of error on new home sales at (±18.3 percent). 

On September 27, I reported New Home Sales Jump an Astonishing 28 Percent in August

Color me more than a bit skeptical of that new home sales report.

To explain my skepticism, please see What Percentage of The August Blowout New Home Sales Will Never Close?

Economists Expectations

The Bloomberg Econoday construction spending consensus was -0.1 percent vs. the report of -0.7 percent.

Given the Census Department revised July from -0.4 percent to -0.6 percent economists missed the mark badly. 

What About GGPNow?

On September 30, I noted GDPNow for the 3rd Quarter Surges Following Strong Trade, Inventory, and Income Reports

The GDPNow forecast blasted to 2.4 percent from 0.3 percent in the latest Atlanta Fed forecast.

I highly doubt GDPNow expects this result. And if not, a big chunk of that surge will be rolled back.

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