Conference Board Confidence Index at 88.7 in November, below Bloomberg consensus at 93.5, which was itself below (revised) October reading of 95.5. The November drop is about one standard deviation. Recall, U.Michigan Sentiment was also below consensus.

Figure 1: Conference Board Consumer Confidence (bold tan), U.Michigan Consumer Sentiment (blue), Gallup Economic Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Red dashed line at “Liberation Day” Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, and author’s calculations.

Expectations have taken a particularly hard hit.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Why so glum about future prospects. Delving in:

…All three components of the Expectations Index deteriorated in November. Consumers were notably more pessimistic about business conditions six months from now. Mid-2026 expectations for labor market conditions remained decidedly negative, and expectations for increased household incomes shrunk dramatically, after six months of strongly positive readings.”

The family finances expectations series are particularly interesting.

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