Commodity Prices Reach Rally Inflection Point

(Click on image to enlarge)

Commodities have been the talk of the town over the past several months, with grains, energy, and metals reaching new multi-month highs over the 12 months.

And this has lead to concerns over input costs… and inflation.

That’s where today’s chart comes into play. It is a 25+ year “quarterly” chart of the Thomson Reuters Core Commodity Index.

As you can see, commodities have been in a broad downtrend channel since peaking in 2007-2008. As well, the 25-year stretch has produced an important support/resistance pivot line (marked by red & green arrows).

So why does this matter to the Commodity Index and several select commodities showing strength?

Because the current 5-quarter rally in commodities is testing this important pivot (now resistance). And at the same time, it is testing the top of its 13-year falling price channel at (1).

If resistance holds, inflation may be held in check and bonds may experience a bear market rally. But if commodities breakout, then inflation concerns will continue to rise, and select commodities showing relative strength will continue higher.

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