I heard someone say this week that currencies are driving everything right now, and I completely agree with that.

The US Dollar has been weak since the beginning of 2017, and since the Fed meeting on Wednesday the dollar has notched another leg lower.

The recent weakness of the US Dollar hasn't just been against a few influential currencies. It has been weak against almost every currency. But the good news for dollar bulls (like me) is that the dollar is now oversold against almost all these currencies, and it is ready for a bounce.

Commodities look very weak except for the industrial metals which are boosted by the expected demand for copper (maybe). What is wrong with this picture? Is this the backdrop of a booming world economy?

I don't claim to know why these ETFs are performing like this, but I can follow technical indicators as well as the next guy.  These weak commodities tell me to stay away from energy, materials, miners, farmers.

I think the current strength in the commodity-related stocks, while the commodities are weak, might indicate that the stock prices are under the control of emotions and expectations. But, I don't really know that.

I am watching precious metals very closely. I see the gold miners sink lower in price while inflation expectations are rising. But the precious metals could be basing. Maybe gold is getting ready for a big move higher. I am going to wait and see if it starts to happen before jumping in.

The dollar might start to find its footing based on this chart.

This trend line could break, but there is strong support just below the current level.

The Leader List

A new short-term uptrend started on Wednesday, and as you would expect some names were added to the leader list.

All the new leaders are foreign ETFs, and most are benefiting from the weaker US Dollar... Korea, Latin America, Russia, etc.

Health Care broke out before the Fed meeting, and then sold off after it. I know there was some bad news in this group, but I also think Health Care is hurt by a weak dollar.

The chart doesn't look that bad, but it was on the verge of becoming a leader.