Cold End Of March Keeps Gas Afloat

It was a mixed day for natural gas futures, as colder weather forecasts helped the April gas contract settle a bit less than a percent higher on the day despite looser fundamental data. 

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natural gas commodity weather

The April contract was clearly the strongest on the day, with other contracts lagging behind on looser demand data. 

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natural gas commodity weather

The result was the first positive settle of the April/May J/K spread in quite some time. 

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natural gas commodity weather

The April/October J/V spread eclipsed the recent highs set last week as well. 

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natural gas commodity weather

Much of the support at the front of the curve came from bullish overnight weather trends. 

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natural gas commodity weather

Yet out sentiment was slightly bearish on the day due to bearish fundamentals besides weather that had us see intraday price downside. This worked out well until mid-day weather model guidance (particularly the GFS ensembles) progressed in an even colder direction (images courtesy of Tropical Tidbits). 

natural gas commodity weather

Climate Prediction Center forecasts this afternoon accordingly eliminated the bulk of what seemed like high probability warm risks yesterday. 

natural gas commodity weather

Disclaimer: To begin receiving both our technical and fundamental analysis of the natural gas market on a daily basis, and view our various models breaking down weather by natural gas demand ...

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Bill Myers 5 years ago Member's comment

Wow, a reason to be happy for the cold!