Change The Month, Change The Trend?

British Pound:  Sterling bottomed around $1.3670 on March 25.  Its recovery was stymied at the start and end of the week, near $1.3850.  The MACD and Slow Stochastic have turned up, but without fresh gains, it appears to be working into a lower range.   Above $1.3850, the $1.4000 area is the next important hurdle.  Support is seen near $1.3750 and then $1.3700.  While the euro has nearly returned to its pre-US election low, sterling is far above it (~$1.2850).  That translates to a significant move on the euro-sterling cross.  The euro had spiked above GBP0.9200 in December, and the first quarter bouncing on GBP0.8500, its lowest level since February 2020.  There is little in the way of GBP0.8400, and even the 2020 low (~GBP0.8285), if that is overwhelmed (FXB).   

Canadian Dollar: The US dollar appears to have entered a new range against the Canadian dollar.  It peaked on March 30 near CAD1.2650 and pulled back into the CAD1.2530-CAD1.2540 area.  That pullback marginally overshot the (38.2%) retracement objective of the greenback's recovery from three-year lows set on March 18 around CAD1.2365. The next retracement objective (50%) is close to CAD1.2500.  The momentum indicators are poised to roll over, suggesting selling into US dollar bounces ahead of next week (April 9) Canadian employment data.  Another robust report would boost the chances that the Bank of Canada changes its forward guidance on tapering its C$4 bln a week of federal government bond purchases at its next meeting (April 21) (FXC).  

Australian Dollar:  Last week's range was set by the outside down day on March 30, reversing lower after reaching $0.7665, and a hammer candlestick low near $0.7535 on April 1.  That was a new low for the year.  The Slow Stochastic has turned higher, but the MACD has yet to do so.  The follow-through buying after the hammer candlestick was limited and not inspiring.  A low in the Aussie does not seem to be in place. The next area of support is $0.7500, roughly the (50%) retracement of the rally from since early last November.  The next retracement (61.8%) objective is closer to $0.7370, and the 200-day moving average is a little above there (~$0.7390).  A move above $0.7640 is needed to improve the tone (FXA).  

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Read more by Marc on his site Marc to Market.

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are solely of the author’s, based on current ...

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