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The Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggled to find upward momentum against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, churning in an uneasy holding pattern near seven-month lows. Despite an early-week upswing in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) barrel bids on Monday, the Loonie is struggling to find support from near-term moves in energy markets as Crude Oil remains on the defensive.

Key Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth figures are due this week, but Loonie traders will be forced to wait until Friday for any critical CAD-centric economic data releases. On the US side, the latest round of Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation updates will be released on Tuesday.

Daily digest market movers: Canadian Dollar continues to struggle amid a lack of meaningful data

• The Canadian Dollar remains on the defensive, stuck near seven-month lows against the US Dollar.
• CAD flows continue to track an overall downturn in Crude Oil markets as the Loonie maintains energy commodity exposure.
• Canadian Dollar markets are hunkered down for a long wait to Friday’s Canadian GDP print.
• US PPI inflation data is front-loaded onto Tuesday, markets expect a slight easing in producer-level inflation that specifically excludes imported goods exposed to tariffs.
• Domestic-only US PPI data is expected to have ticked slightly lower in September, while CAD GDP data is forecast to rebound on an annualized basis.

Canadian Dollar price forecast

USD/CAD continues to press higher after defending the rising 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3980. Buyers stepped in quickly after last week’s dip, forming a higher low that keeps the broader advance intact. Price is now testing the 1.4100 to 1.4150 zone, which has acted as stubborn resistance since early November. A daily close above 1.4150 would clear the recent ceiling and open the path toward the November high near 1.4200.

Momentum indicators support the bullish tone without flashing extremes. The relative strength index sits just above the midpoint and is rising, while the stochastic oscillator has turned higher from its mid-range. The 200-day EMA continues to slope upward under price, reinforcing the trend bias. As long as the pair holds above the recent higher low near 1.4000, buyers maintain control. A break below that level would be the first sign of fatigue.

USD/CAD daily chart

(Click on image to enlarge)

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