Photo by Michelle Spollen on Unsplash

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) flatlined on Tuesday, holding in a near-term range against the US Dollar (USD) as markets grind their way through the end-of-year slowdown. Market momentum remains absent with most market participants sidelined through the final trading week of 2025.

The meeting minutes from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate call, where the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a third straight interest rate cut, revealed little new information: despite a widening range of policy targets, the FOMC is overwhelmingly tilting into the dovish side, and is open to the idea of further interest rate cuts, but only in inflation metrics continue to ease.

Daily digest market movers: Canadian Dollar traders look ahead to the new year

• The Canadian Dollar struggled to find movement on Tuesday, stuck near familiar levels against the US Dollar.
• Deeply overbought Loonie markets could be primed for a short-term move lower, but are poised to give way to further gains as rate differentials begin to widen in 2026.
• The Bank of Canada (BoC) remains stuck in place with too-low interest rates, while the Fed looks set for further rate cuts next year.
• The Fed’s latest meeting minutes showed that policymakers are open to further interest rate cuts, but rate moves remain contingent on inflation continuing to ease.

Canadian Dollar price forecast

In the daily chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.3697. The pair holds below the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, both pointing lower. The 50-day EMA has crossed beneath the 200-day EMA, reinforcing a bearish setup and keeping rebounds contained. RSI near 32 signals weak momentum after an oversold dip, while the Stochastic turning up from extreme lows hints at fading downside pressure.

Bearish momentum prevails while price remains under the falling averages and RSI stays south of 50. A daily close above the 50-day EMA would ease pressure and open scope for a corrective bounce toward the 200-day EMA, but failure to clear the former would keep risks tilted to fresh lows. Oscillator stabilization could fuel brief recoveries, yet trend signals still favor sellers until those moving-average barriers give way.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)

USD/CAD daily chart

(Click on image to enlarge)

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