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The S&P closed up 24 points today. Everyone's celebrating.

But I'm watching something far more dangerous develop in real time.

The bond market just flashed a warning signal that could flip this entire rally on its head. We're talking about a shift that's happening right now while most traders are completely focused on tech stocks and AI names.

Here's what caught my attention today. The Federal Reserve cut rates. They told us rates are going lower. The market cheered and rallied.

Yet bonds are selling off hard. The 10-year yield is climbing straight toward 4.2%.

This is the exact opposite of what should happen when the Fed cuts rates. When bonds sell off, interest rates rise. We're now just a few basis points away from a critical threshold that will force the entire market to wake up.

The 10-year was trading near 3.9% not long ago. Now we're threatening 4.2%. Once we crack that level, the narrative shifts completely. Suddenly everyone starts talking about unsustainable debt levels in a rising rate environment. That conversation kills rallies fast.

The setup is clear. Rates are climbing despite Fed cuts. TLT is breaking down through support at $89. The 30-year bonds show accelerating selling pressure.

This matters because higher rates destroy valuations. They hit financials first. Then they spread to tech. The market hasn't priced this in yet because everyone assumed the Fed's rate cuts meant lower rates across the board.

I walked through the exact levels to watch in today's session. The 10-year at 4.2%. The 30-year bond futures showing sustained selling. TLT breaking key support zones. These are the tripwires that trigger broader market attention.

We also saw massive intraday volatility today that the closing numbers don't show. The S&P traded a 110-point range from overnight lows at 6748 to highs at 6857. That's enormous movement hiding under a boring 0.3% daily gain.

The market faded hard into the close today. Lost about half the gains. That's not the action of a confident market. That's distribution.

Video Length: 00:11:00

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