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The latest revision sets jobs at -4,000 in August from the initial report of +22,000.
 

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BLS Nonfarm Payroll Revisions

The BLS had negative revisions eight consecutive months and 26 out of the last 32 months.

With revisions, the month-over-month employment was -13,000 in June and -4,000 in August.

September Jobs Up 119,000 Unemployment Rises to 4.4 Percent

Please consider the guaranteed-to-be-revised report September Jobs Up 119,000 Unemployment Rises to 4.4 Percent:

Initial Thoughts

All year, I kept asking “Does anyone believe these reports?”

In July the BLS said oops. Employment in May and June was a combined 258,000 lower than previously reported (now revised lower again).

In August, the BLS said oops again. The BLS reported negative job growth for June.

The revision hit parade continues in September. July was revised down by 7,000, from +79,000 to +72,000, and the change for August was revised down by 26,000, from +22,000 to -4,000.

There is no reason to believe this report either. But let’s discuss it anyway.

….

Revised When?

The BLS cancelled the October report because the Household Data was not collected and cannot be retroactively collected.

The BLS will extends the collection period for the November 2025 data, and extra processing time will be added.

The November release was scheduled for December 5, but has been rescheduled for Tuesday, December 16, 2025.

ADP Pulse

On November 14, I noted ADP Pulse of Net Private Job Creation Drops to Negative 11,250 Per Week:

How fast is the economy shedding jobs?

My assessment is fast. Especially small businesses that I believe are under-sampled.

Importantly, consider the pulse of -11,250 (-45,000) as a revised estimate of ADP’s +42,000 for October.

In light of the above, it is ludicrous to believe full-time employment rose by 655,000 in September. But that is what the BLS astonishingly reports!

Click on the above link for ADP, Revelio, and Challenger reports. Jobs are sinking fast.

Finally, the next FOMC meeting is December 10. The Fed will not have October or November data for the meeting.

The reporting delay increases the likelihood the Fed pauses at the December meeting.

For discussion, please consider FOMC Minutes Show Inflation Concerns, Fed Rate Cut Odds Plunge.

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