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Bitcoin daily chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com

Bitcoin is now down 32 percent from the October high. Technically speaking, the chart is disastrous.

In E-wave terms the pattern looks like a negative impulse. Impulse moves are 5 waves with wave 3 the strongest. There are 5 clean segements in what looks like a wave 3 impulse.

In E-wave corrective moves are in 3 moves. Wave 2 in my chart has 3 segments.

If wave 4 up is starting, we should now see a 3-segment move up, completing wave 4. Then it would be wave 5 down which could also be very nasty.

Bitcoin Weekly

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Bitcoin weekly chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com

The weekly chart lends support to the lead chart. It shows 5 mostly clean waves up, to a pattern that could be a long-term high.

Support is at 74,500 and I would expect a bounce there. But Bitcoin has tendencies to bounce at random levels. It’s possible one started today.

The Bitcoin low of the day is 80,562 and it’s now 84,500 as I type. There is no support at 80,000 so this is a rather normal Bitcoin bounce out of the blue.

Is Bitcoin In a Bear Market?

Well, what’s your definition? In stocks, a 20 percent decline is a bear market.

However, Bitcoin is so volatile, I am hesitant to call a 20 percent move much more than a correction. Perhaps doubling the stock market definition to 40 percent is a reasonable thing to do.

Bitcoin Monthly Chart

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Bitcoin monthly chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com

I don’t see how to put a 5-wave count on that. Perhaps going back prior to 2015 is needed. Perhaps it’s a terminal wave-5 up that subdivided or truncated.

A Bit of a Warning to Bitcoin Bears

When I post on Bitcoin, it is often near the end of a move.

That could easily be the case here.

On the other hand, IF this is the start of a negative move from a terminal wave 5, it is going to get very nasty.

I posted support lines, but in genuine bear markets, support does not hold. That would make the likely targets first at 49,000 then 25,000.

Those would be impressive declines, but not at all unusual for Bitcoin.

Here’s one other factor of note. Bitcoin has a strong tendency to follow moves in technology. Has the Nasdaq peaked?

S&P Bounce off Support

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S&P 500 daily chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com

The S&P 500 bounced right on cue today. This is a technical bounce until proven otherwise.

If it’s a genuine bounce, then we are off to new record highs.

However, those open gaps are begging to be filled. And I doubt Bitcoin will buck the trend if a bear market has started in technology or the S&P 500.

How Things Look

Ominous.

But that is how they look. Nothing would surprise me at this point because fundamentals just don’t seem to matter.

Yesterday, I noted Huge Stock Market Gap and Crap, Sell the Nvidia Good News Event

It’s a huge warning when good news is smashed.

Today we see a bounce. But it’s expected. Right at support.

Bitcoin is struggling, but Bitcoin is not at support.

Have the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Stock Markets Peaked?

On November 18, I asked Have the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Stock Markets Peaked?

I don’t know and you don’t either. Instead, let’s discuss “What If?”

What I Said Yesterday

The market is insanely priced and has been for a long time. But one should not argue with bull markets.

It’s a very bad sign when good news is sold. What more even better news is coming?

If the top is in, click on the above link to see my sobering targets.

And regarding Nvidia and AI, please see Circular Investment Deals in AI Look Similar to the Dot-Com Bubble

Please buy my product, and I’ll use the money to buy yours.

Recall Lucent’s lending of billions of dollars to upstart telecom companies fueling Lucent’s growth.

When the financing went bust the scheme crashed.

Now, AMD is paying OpenAI to be a customer, albeit in a different way. The same is going on with Nvidia and OpenAI. But at least it’s not debt financed.

That’s the technical picture and a bit of the AI fundamental picture. Both are looking terrible.

But some will note the contrary nature of me posting technical charts.

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