Bitcoin Crash Creates Golden Opportunity

I’ve been wrong about my timing of the silver and gold trade twice now. Once to my followers in Momentum Trader and another time in a much more public way, on Bloomberg the end of last year. My fundamental investment thesis surrounding gold hasn’t been wrong just my timing. And now, with gold prices bouncing off $1,200 and last week’s Bitcoin debacle I’m taking another stab at it.

The Bitcoin debacle I’m referring to is last week’s decision by the SEC to reject the Winklevoss Twins’ proposal for a Bitcoin ETF. An ETF would have helped to legitimize the cryptocurrency and expose it to an entire new market of potential investors. The SEC’s decision was based on the unregulated nature of the Bitcoin market itself. With no way of overseeing the underlying investment, there was no way the SEC could give it a stamp of approval.

You could argue that Bitcoin and gold are both alternatives to global fiat currencies. Neither has a central bank which governs them nor do they pay interest. They are both a store of value and can be held anonymously. Gold and silver have a tendency to track with each other so I’m including it when I look for stock ideas.

Of course there’s one giant difference between the two. Gold has been a historic store of value for ages and something you can physically possess. Bitcoin is a digital currency that was created from nothing a few years ago. There is still a huge amount of skepticism surrounding Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. A rash of high profile hacks, essentially digital bank robberies, have loomed like a cloud over Bitcoin for years. This ETF would have been something like a Bitcoin coming out party.

However, that was not the case and Bitcoin’s value plunged in Friday trading. Nearly simultaneous there was a huge rally in gold prices with the metal bouncing from just under $1,200 an ounce, an obvious psychological support level. Gold still does have an inverse relationship with yields. As interest rates rise you tend to see pressure on gold prices. We all know the Fed is going to hike rates next week. That is a huge negative on gold pricing. But if the metal can rally even in the face of that hike, then there could be overpowering fundamentals at play.

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Disclosure: contains statements and statistics that have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. References to any specific ...

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