Risk On

• Markets were relatively unchanged over the last week but were all strongly positive on the year. (+)
• Russel 2000 closed above the $200 level but needs to hold this level (+)
• Home Builders, Semis, and Consumer Discretionary all were strong, while Consumer staples, Energy, and Utilities were down on the year, an overall risk-on rotation for the market. (+)
• Foreign markets bounced off long-term support levels, led by Asia (Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam) (+)
• Growth continues to lead Value – Risk on (+)
• 52-Week new high new low ratio is positively stacked and sloped around highs (+)
• Volatility Ratio remains positive around the 1.3 level (+)
• Commodities giving a mixed signal with soft commodities and oil under pressure. Distribution phase in both aggs and oil, indicating at least a temporary easing in inflation (+)

Neutral

• Considering the holiday week, volume backed off but overall looks neutral (=)
• Risk gauge remains neutral (=)
• Looking at small caps, mid caps, and the DOW, all holding 10-DMA and need to hold for strength of market to stay intact. (=)
• Longer-term uptrends remain intact though sitting right at 10-DMA in most of the modern family, which threatens a deeper correction if it can’t hold on a short-term basis. (=)
• Gold closed near all-time highs, bucking the trend in the other commodities. (=)

Risk Off

• McClellan Oscillator sitting around mid-point. Any further breakdown could be first sell signal since mid-October (=)
• Stocks above moving averages remain elevated at extreme levels and on a shorter-term basis, markets look a little under pressure (-)

Video Length: 00:11:52

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