Big View Summary For December 31, 2023

Risk On

Markets were relatively unchanged over the last week but were all strongly positive on the year. (+)
Russel 2000 closed above the $200 level but needs to hold this level (+)
Home Builders, Semis, and Consumer Discretionary all were strong, while Consumer staples, Energy, and Utilities were down on the year, an overall risk-on rotation for the market. (+)
Foreign markets bounced off long-term support levels, led by Asia (Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam) (+)
Growth continues to lead Value – Risk on (+)
52-Week new high new low ratio is positively stacked and sloped around highs (+)
Volatility Ratio remains positive around the 1.3 level (+)
Commodities giving a mixed signal with soft commodities and oil under pressure. Distribution phase in both aggs and oil, indicating at least a temporary easing in inflation (+)

Neutral

Considering the holiday week, volume backed off but overall looks neutral (=)
Risk gauge remains neutral (=)
Looking at small caps, mid caps, and the DOW, all holding 10-DMA and need to hold for strength of market to stay intact. (=)
Longer-term uptrends remain intact though sitting right at 10-DMA in most of the modern family, which threatens a deeper correction if it can’t hold on a short-term basis. (=)
Gold closed near all-time highs, bucking the trend in the other commodities. (=)

Risk Off

McClellan Oscillator sitting around mid-point. Any further breakdown could be first sell signal since mid-October (=)
Stocks above moving averages remain elevated at extreme levels and on a shorter-term basis, markets look a little under pressure (-)

Video Length: 00:11:52

More By This Author: