Big Bank Loan Volumes Continue To Decline As Deposit Outflows Return

Retail money-market funds inflows continued this week, and more troubling (ahead of the coming regional bank earnings), usage of The Fed's emergency funding facility jumped to a new record high over $109BN. Big banks had a good day today on earnings.

That's the not-so-rosy picture ahead of tonight's bank deposit data debacle from The Fed.

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, total deposits declined by $12.4BN (after two big weekly deposit inflows)...

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source: Bloomberg

However, on an unadjusted basis, total deposits rose $41.5BN...

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source: Bloomberg

And so, removing foreign bank flows, we see domestic banks diverging on an SA vs NSA basis once again ($41.6BN inflows NSA, $17.5BN outflows SA)...

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source: Bloomberg

On the bright side, the gap between SA and NSA deposits outflows since the SVB crisis is narrowing (only $57BN now)...

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source: Bloomberg

On the other side of the ledger, loan volumes shrank again by over $10BN with large bank loan volumes declining for the 3rd straight week...

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source: Bloomberg

The key warning sign continues to trend lower (Small Banks' reserve constraint), supported above the critical level by The Fed's emergency funds (for now)...

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source: Bloomberg

...we sure hope these banks are making plans to fill the $109BN hole in their balance sheets they are filling with expensive Fed loans.


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