SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold 8/24/21 at 4486.23=gain 1.83%; Long SPX on 8/19/21 at 4405.80.

Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78 (GDX). 

Long Term SPX monitor purposes; Neutral (SPX)

We updated this chart from yesterday.  Yesterday the SPY closed above it upper Bollinger band and its common for the market to start showing weakness short term and it appears that is what happening.  Today’s weak volume adds to the weakness scenario.  The 5 day TRIN (second window up from bottom) did close below .90 late last week and early this week, which can stall the market short term.   Tomorrow is September 1 and seasonality wise promise an up day tomorrow near 80% of the time.  If there is an up day, we don’t believe it to be the start of a new uptrend.  We do have bearish signs but picture is unclear short term (SPY).

Above is a continuation of the short term view.  Back on August 11 and 12 the tick closed at +325 and +437 respectively (noted in blue).  Closing ticks above +300 after an extended rally is a bearish sign. Today the tick closed at +477 and a bearish sign.   Tomorrow is 9/1 and seasonality wise is up near 80% of the time. Don’t know if it will happen, but it SPY and VIX are both up tomorrow will add to the bearish scenario. Wednesday and Thursday are usually not great trade entries days but Friday, Monday and Tuesday usually are.  Bearish signs are developing. 

Last Thursday we showed the weekly Bullish percent index for the Gold Miners index/GDX ratio which was flashing an intermediate term bullish signal. Yesterday we showed the daily Inflation/Deflation ratio which was flashing an intermediate term bullish signal. The second window up from the bottom in chart above is the 50 day average of the Up down Volume Percent for GDX and next window up is the 50 day average for the Advance/Decline percent for GDX. When both indicators fall below -20 and than close above -20, an intermediate term bullish signal is triggered. Three different intermediate term indicators are lining up on the bullish side of the ledger.