Barchart Morning Call


September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.04%) this morning are up +0.01% and European stocks are up +0.22% as the markets await the latest monetary policy decision from the FOMC. The Fed will also release a new set of quarterly predictions for unemployment, inflation, economic growth and the Fed funds rate today. The Russian ruble strengthened for the first time in six days against the dollar when Ukraine said it will call for a unilateral cease fire this week. After talks between German President Merkel and Russian President Putin, Ukraine President Poroshenko said that government forces will unilaterally cease fire to allow pro-Russian separatists in the east of the country a chance to lay down weapons or leave the country. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.93%, Hong Kong -0.09%, China -0.43%, Taiwan +0.43%, Australia -0.33%, Singapore +0.07%, South Korea -0.66%, India -1.08%. Japanese stocks closed higher after the yen weakened, which boosts the earnings prospects of exporters. The yen retreated after trade data showed Japan May exports fell by the most in 15 months. Chinese stocks closed lower for a second day after data showed that China May new-home prices fell in half the cities tracked by the government for the first time in 2 years, which fuels concern a property slowdown will hurt economic growth. Commodity prices are mixed. July crude oil (CLN14 +0.29%) is up +0.31%. July gasoline (RBN14 +0.14%) is up +0.06%. Aug gold (GCQ14 -0.07%) is down -0.03%. July copper (HGN14+0.18%) is unch. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.10%) is down -0.10%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.14%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.03%. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14+0.14%) are up +5.5 ticks.

Data from China's National Bureau of Statistics showed that China May new-home prices fell in 35 of the 70 Chinese cities tracked by the data, the most in 2 years.

In the minutes of its Jun 4-5 meeting, the BOE said a rate increase this year may be more likely than investors anticipate. The BOE stated that the economy could maintain its pace of growth, and slack "would be absorbed more quickly than had previously been expected. In that context, the relatively low probability attached to a bank rate increase this year implied by some financial market prices was somewhat surprising."

The Japan May trade balance widened to a -909 billion yen deficit, less than expectations of a -1.189 trillion yen deficit. May exports fell -2.7% y/y, a larger decline than expectations of -1.3% y/y and the most in 15 months. May imports unexpectedly fell -3.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.8% y/y and the biggest fall in 1-3/4 years.

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