Australian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook: AUD/USD Reversal Targets

In this series, we scale-back and look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. The Australian Dollar is up more than 6.5% off the monthly lows after briefly dipping to levels not seen since March of 2009. The advance is now targeting the first major resistance hurdle and a make-or-break level for the bulls. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly chart.

AUD/USD WEEKLY PRICE CHART

(Click on image to enlarge)

AUD/USD Weekly Price Chart

Notes: In last month’s Australian Dollar Weekly Technical Outlook we continued to highlight the descending pitchfork formation we’ve been tracking off the 2017 & 2018 highs with our ‘bottom line’ focus lower while below 7385”. Aussie briefly broke below a critical support zone at 6828/55 before posting a massive outside-weekly reversal higher amid ongoing bullish divergence in momentum.

The advance is now targeting confluence resistance just higher at the 76.4% retracement / upper parallel around 7240- a breach/close above this threshold is needed to validate a larger reversal with such a scenario targeting 7327 and 7440. IF price has put in a near-term low, losses should not surpass support at the October swing low / 2019 low-day close at 7005/21 (bullish invalidation).

Bottom line: The AUD/USD reversal is approaching the first major resistance hurdle, and a make-or-break pivot just higher near 7240s – look for a reaction there IF reached. From a trading standpoint, the focus remains on a stretch into this region with a close above needed to suggest that a larger turn is underway. The immediate advance looks a bit vulnerable so look for pullbacks to hold above the monthly open. I’ll publish an updated AUD/USD technical outlook once we get further clarity on near-term price action.

AUD/USD TRADER SENTIMENT

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