Aussie Market Commentary - Wednesday, March 27

Aussie Under Pressure

The Aussie Dollar is back under offer today following weaker-than-forecast inflation data overnight. Australian annualised CPI was seen holding at 3.4% last month, undershooting forecasts for an uptick to 3.5%. Prices have now held at this level for three consecutive months, remaining at their lowest point since November 2021, with food prices seen rising at their lowest level for 25 months.

 

RBA Easing Expectations

The data has added to the view that the next move for the RBA will be down. Indeed, at the latest RBA meeting last week, head of the bank Michele Bullock warned that the RBA is monitoring risks to the economy and would not rule out any course of action. Up until that meeting, the RBA had been signalling a likely need to raise rates further. However, with the bank’s outlook now falling into neutral territory, traders are speculating that the bank will soon shift into dovish mode.

 

Risks Remain

Commenting on the broader economy, Bullock noted last week that while inflation is moderating, there were still upside risks to be monitored including risks linked to the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Still, with central banks across the G10 bloc turning more dovish, traders anticipate that a fresh fall in the next inflation readings should be enough to turn the RBA to easing, keeping the AUD outlook skewed to the downside for now.

 

Technical Views

 

AUDUSD

Following the latest failure at the .6681 level, price is now sitting back on support at the .6520 level and the bull trend line from October 2023 lows. With momentum studies bearish, risks of a deeper push lower are seen with .6275 the longer-run target for bears. 

(Click on image to enlarge)

 


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