Gold Commentary - Tuesday, March 26

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Gold Rallying on Tuesday

Gold prices are pushing firmly higher today, benefiting from weakness in the US Dollar through the European morning on Tuesday. The yellow metal had been weaker in recent sessions, weighed on by the post-FOMC uptick in USD. However, with the move having lost some momentum now, and gold prices remaining underpinned by the broken prior highs, bullish sentiment looks to be taking hold again.
 

Fed Easing Expectations

Some of the more hawkish details of the FOMC, such as inflation and growth forecasts being revised higher, appeared to keep USD bid in the immediate aftermath of the meeting. However, with the Fed having reaffirmed its outlook for three rate cuts this year, USD looks to be reverting to a bearish bias now. Upcoming data today holds the potential to drive USD down lower (and consequently, support gold) if we see forecasts being undershot. Given the bullish expectations for both durable goods and consumer confidence today, there is plenty of room for a downside surprise to put further pressure on USD here.
 

US Inflation Data Key

Looking further out this week, the main focus for traders will be Friday’s US inflation data. Given that pricing for a June cut has crept higher, any weakness in that reading should be firmly bearish for USD, sending gold prices higher into the long weekend. However, if that reading remains firm, we could well see USD popping near term as June rate-cut pricing softens, leading gold back down for now. As such, plenty of two-way risk in Friday’s data, particularly given the thin markets due to the Easter break in much of Europe.
 

Technical Views

XAUUSD

While the breakout to fresh highs has stalled for now into the 2221.39 level, price has continued to find support at the retest of the broken 2149.72 level. While this level holds focus is on a further push higher with the bull channel highs the next target. Should we slip back below 2149.72, however, focus turns to 2069.41 and the bull channel lows as the next support zone to watch. 


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