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Hawkish Details

The latest set of RBA minutes, released overnight, came in a little more hawkish than many were expecting. The minutes saw RBA minutes agreeing that upside inflation risks remain a significant concern and might sill warrant further tightening to bring under control. At the last meeting, members decided that holding rates unchanged was the stronger case though noted that by the November meeting they would have more data on jobs and inflation as well as updated economic forecasts.

Further Tightening Might be Necessary

Looking ahead, the minutes noted that board members had a “low tolerance” for inflation returning to target at a slow pace. Additionally, members agreed that an uptick in house prices were likely a signal that policy was not as tight as it could be. While the impact of past hikes is not expected to be fully felt for some months to come, data shows the economy has continued to grow recently. As such, the outlook appears to be shifting back in favour of further RBA rate hikes before year end which should offer AUD some advantage against weaker currencies.

Technical Views

The sell-off in AUDSD has been laboured following the break below the .6520 level, with several retest of the area. Price is currently being held up by support at the .6275 level, ahead of deeper support at the 2022 lows around .6195. With momentum studies stalling, upside risks might well be building suggesting traders should be on the lookout for bullish reversal opportunities, targeting a move north of .6520 unless we see .6195 broken near-term. 

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