AUD/USD Price Forecast: Below 0.6415, The Pair Might Fall To 0.6375

10 and 20 us dollar bill

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Aussie Dollar’s upside attempts have been contained below 0.6430 so far on Friday, and the pair turned lower again to two-month lows at the 0.6415 area, which is being tested at the time of writing.

The US Dollar is outperforming its main peers, underpinned by a moderate risk-averse market. Investors are wary of selling US Dollars, ahead of a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is expected to give some clues about the bank’s next monetary policy steps.


AUD/USD is on track for a 1.3% weekly decline

This leaves the pair on the defensive, after a nearly 1.3% sell-off so far this week. In the absence of key macroeconomic data, the cautious market mood has been bleeding the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar this week, with upbeat US figures prompting investors to pare bets of Fed cuts and posing additional support for the Greenback.

(Click on image to enlarge)

AUD/USD Chart


The technical picture, thus, is strongly bearish, with sellers pushing against support near the August 1 low of 0.6415 at the moment. Below here, the psychological level at 0.6400 might provide some support, but the 0.6375 level, where the June 23 low meets the 127.2 Fibiopnacci retracement of the early August rally, looks like a more plausible level.

To the upside, immediate resistance is at the mentioned 0.6435 intra-day high. Further up, the area between the August 5 low and August 20 high at 0.6450-0.6455 might challenge bulls ahead of the previous support near the 0.6480 area, where bears were contained on August 12, 14, and 18.


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