AUD/USD Price Analysis: Likely Test Ascending Triangle’s Breakdown Near 0.6520

The AUD/USD pair finds support slightly below the psychological support of 0.6500 in the early American session on Thursday. The Aussie asset discovers some buying interest as the US Dollar retreats after refreshing six-week high. However, the broader appeal of the Aussie asset is still downbeat as investors remain uncertain ahead of the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for February, which will be published on Friday.

The core PCE will provide cues about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin reducing interest rates. The annual underlying inflation data is estimated to have grown steadily by 2.8%, with monthly growth declining to 0.3% from 0.4% in January.

The US Dollar Index failed to sustain six-week highs near 104.72 despite the final estimate from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for the final quarter of 2023 showing that the economy grew by 3.4%. As per the preliminary estimates, the economy expanded by 3.2%.

Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar broadly remains on the backfoot as the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) higher Official Cash Rate (OCR) has deepened the cost-of-living crisis. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that monthly Retail Sales grew at a slower pace of 0.3% in February, against expectations of 0.4% and the former reading of 1.1%.

AUD/USD is expected to test the breakdown of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern near 0.6520 formed on a four-hour timeframe. The upward-sloping border of the aforementioned pattern is plotted from February 13 low at 0.6442 while the horizontal resistance is placed from January 30 high at 0.6626.

Downward-sloping 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 0.6525 and 0.6538, respectively, indicate that near-term demand is weak.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating indecisiveness among market participants.

Investors might build fresh shorts after a pullback move near 0.6530. Profits on shorts would be booked near the psychological support of 0.6500 and February 13 low near 0.6440.

On the contrary, a sharp recovery move above March 26 high at 0.6560 will drive the asset toward the round-level resistance of 0.6600, followed by March 12 high at 0.6640.


AUD/USD four-hour chart

(Click on image to enlarge)


Today last price 0.6514
Today Daily Change -0.0020
Today Daily Change % -0.31
Today daily open 0.6534


Daily SMA20 0.656
Daily SMA50 0.6551
Daily SMA100 0.6596
Daily SMA200 0.655


Previous Daily High 0.6539
Previous Daily Low 0.6511
Previous Weekly High 0.6634
Previous Weekly Low 0.6504
Previous Monthly High 0.661
Previous Monthly Low 0.6443
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6528
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6522
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6518
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6501
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.649
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6545
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6556
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6573

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Information on this article contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not ...

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