My previous signal on 13^th August was not triggered.

Today’s AUD/USD Signals

• Risk 0.75%
• Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.

(Click on image to enlarge) 

​

Short Trade Ideas

• Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6790, $0.6877, or $0.6895.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6751, $0.6726, or $0.6709.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

AUD/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous AUD/USD forecast on 13^th August that the AUD/USD currency pair was looking likely to treat the support level at $0.6565 as pivotal today. I was wrong about that. I was also wrong about the price trading above $0.6611 working as a bullish sign.

The price traded very close to a new record high for 2024 last week, reaching a new 8-month high. The price then dropped quite hard as the US Dollar made a comeback towards the end of the week, but we now see the price rising from the support level confluent with the major quarter-number at $0.6750.

Bulls face an obstacle at the resistance level of $0.6790. If the price can trade above this and reach a new high above $0.6800, it has room to rise all the way to $0.6877. However this is unlikely to happen today as its probably going to be a quiet market due to the US public holiday today, but it might start today.

The Aussie is also getting a boost from comments by the Deputy Governor of the RBA to the effect that rate cuts will not be forthcoming over the near term, which puts the RBA on a divergent path to the US Federal Reserve.

I am ready to take a long trade from either a bullish bounce off $0.6751 or after two consecutive higher hourly closes above $0.6800 without either candlestick having a large upper wick.

There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning either the AUD or the USD.

More By This Author: