My previous AUD/USD signal last Thursday was not triggered as there was no bearish price action when the price first reached the resistance level which I had identified at $0.6308..

Today’s AUD/USD Signals

• Risk 0.50%
• Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.

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Short Trade Ideas

• Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6368, $0.6388, or $0.6401.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Long Trade Ideas

• Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the 1H1 time frame H1H1H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6310 or $0.6233.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

AUD/USD Analysis

In my previous forecast, I thought that the price would likely continue trading sideways between $0.6233 and the closest resistance at $0.6308. I was wrong, there was a bullish breakout beyonf $0.6308 which has maintained momentum.

In today’s AUD/USD forecast I predict that the AUD/USD currency pair is most likely to continue to rise, due to the following factors:

1. We see the price having made a new 2-month high yesterday, although the price is still being held by the nearby resistance level at $0.6368. The price action suggests we will see another bullish breakout on this momentum, and a further rise.
2. The Australian Dollar is one of the stronger major currencies, picking up as global risk appetite picks up. The RBA’s 0.25% rate hike earlier today has not weakened the currency at all, as the Bank pushed back against speculation it would make another three cuts over the course of 2025.
3. Although the US Dollar is a bit higher over the past couple of days, it has weakened significantly, to the point that its long-term bullish trend has been invalidated. The short-term trend seems to be against the greenback.

For these reasons, I am equally OK with a long trade from a rejection of $0.6310 or a long trade following a breakout above $0.6368, signalled by two consecutive higher hourly closes without significant upper wicks. The breakout trade looks likely to be the better bet.

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