Bearish View

• Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6180.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6310.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish View

• Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6310.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6180.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The AUD/USD pair rallied as most forex traders and investors returned from the Christmas and New Year break. It rose for the third day, reaching a high of 0.6300, then pared back some of those gains to trade at 0.6240.

The Australian dollar rose after a report showed that the country’s services sector continued to do well in December. The services PMI rose from 50.5 in November to 50.8 in December, a sign that the industry was doing well.

These numbers and last week’s improving manufacturing data mean that the economy is doing well. Still, analysts expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will start cutting interest rates in the first quarter. It is the only major central bank, except the Bank of Japan, that has not slashed rates in the past few months.

The AUD/USD pair rose as the US dollar softened after key US data and a statement by Lisa Cook, the RBA Chair. Data by S&P Global showed that the services PMI rose from 56.1 to 56.8, missing the expected 58.5. The composite PMI rose from 54.9 to 55.4, also lower than the expected 56.6.

Another report showed that the factory order data dropped by 0.4% in November. Meanwhile, a senior Fed official, Lisa Cook, said that she supported the Fed’s decision to maintain a cautious view of interest rate policy.

The AUD/USD pair will next react to the upcoming US jobs numbers, which will start coming out on Tuesday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the latest job vacancy data, followed by ADP’s private payrolls on Wednesday and the official NFPs on Friday.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair bottomed at 0.6178 last week and then rebounded to 0.6300, its highest level since December 18. This rebound happened after the pair formed a falling wedge pattern, a popular reversal sign.

It has remained below the key support at 0.6363, its lowest level in April and August last year. The pair also remained below the 50-day moving average. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has pointed upward, while the two lines of the MACD have formed a bullish crossover.

The pair will likely remain in this range as traders wait for the upcoming US jobs data. A drop below the support at 0.6178 will point to more downside.

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