Risk sentiment took a hit yesterday, and risky assets have sold off quite firmly, and the Aussie is nothing if not a risk asset these days. 

My previous signal on 29^th November was not triggered, as none of the key support or resistance levels which I had identified were reached that day.

Today’s AUD/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%

Trades may only be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday. 

Short Trade Ideas

• Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6589 or $0.6602.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6572, $0.6546, or $0.6533.
• Place stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

AUD/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous forecast last Wednesday that the AUD/USD currency pair was likely to not move much due to both the Aussie and the greenback being weak, but I did see a long scalp opportunity potentially arising at $0.6600. This was a good call, as although this level was not quite reached, the low of the day was only 6 pips above it.

The technical picture has become more bearish since then, with the US Dollar regaining ground over the past few days after falling strongly previously to begin to create a new long-term bearish trend. Risk sentiment took a hit yesterday, and risky assets have sold off quite firmly, and the Aussie is nothing if not a risk asset these days. We also saw the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy release a few hours which left the Cash Rate on hold at 4.35% as expected, but also saw Governor Bullock use more dovish language on inflation, and this has helped weaken the price.

Technically, the price has been falling for hours, printing new clear resistance levels on its way down. The price is currently close to support at $0.6572. I think if this level breaks down, the price will continue lower and reach the next support level at $0.6546 today. If that breaks down, we could even see the price reach $0.6533.

(Click on image to enlarge)

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