Bearish View

• Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6500.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6625.
• Timeline: 1-2 days

Bullish View

• Set a buy-stop at 0.6565 and a take-profit at 0.6650.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6500.

(Click on image to enlarge) 

The AUD/USD exchange rate continued its downward trend as investors focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision and the US general election set on Tuesday. It has retreated to a low of 0.6560, its lowest level since August, and 5.5% from its highest level since September.

RBA and Fed Decision

The AUD/USD slipped after the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) published its third-quarter inflation report. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) retreated from 1.0% in Q2 to 0.2% in Q3, lower than the expected 0.3%.

On a year-on-year basis, the CPI retreated from 3.8% to 2.8%, higher than the median estimate of 2.3%. The weighted CPI retreated from 4.2% to 3.8%, higher than the expected 3.6%.

These numbers came as the RBA prepares to deliver its interest rate decision on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters expect the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.35%. The bank will also likely signal that it will cut interest rates sometime in 2025, making it the last major central bank to cut rates.

The RBA decision will come as the Federal Reserve prepares for the next monetary policy meeting, whose decision will come out on Wednesday. Economists expect the bank to cut interest rates by 0.25%, odds that have risen after last Friday’s nonfarm payroll (NFP) data.

These numbers showed that the economy created just 12,000 jobs because of the Hurricanes and Boeing strikes. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, while wage growth continued.

The Fed is now more focused on inflation since recent economic numbers showed that inflation was on the path to 2.0%.

Meanwhile, the pair will react to the US election, in which Donald Trump will face Kamala Harris.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD exchange rate has been in a strong downward trend as investors waited for the next general election. It has slipped below the key support level at 0.6621, its lowest swing on September 11.

The 50-day and 25-day moving averages have formed a bearish crossover pattern, a popular bearish sign. It has also moved below the Ichimoku cloud.

Also, the MACD and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have continued to fall. Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling ahead of the RBA and Fed decision. It may also rebound after the election as the election volatility ease.

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