The AUD/USD forecast indicates a sustained robustness in Australia’s labor market, positively impacting the Australian dollar. Meanwhile, risk sentiment remained weak as market participants worried about looming Trump tariffs and increasing tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

Data on Thursday revealed unexpectedly solid job growth in Australia, leading to a decline in RBA rate cut expectations. Australia’s economy added 44,300 jobs, beating estimates of 20,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased from 4.0% to 4.1%, meeting expectations. 

The Reserve Bank of Australia implemented its first rate cut this week. However, policymakers emphasized caution due to the strong labor market. If this strength continues, rate cut expectations will fall, and the Aussie will climb. 

Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened against most of its peers as market participants sought safety amid tariff fears. This week, Trump proposed a new automobile tariff that might start in April. This would add to reciprocal tariffs and the 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. All these duties might lead to a global trade war that would hurt the global economy. 

At the same time, traders were worried about rising tensions between Ukraine and Russia. Although Trump promised peace, he has caused suspicion, especially from Ukraine. Consequently, hopes for a near-term end to the Ukraine war have diminished.

AUD/USD key events today

• US unemployment claims

AUD/USD technical forecast: 30-SMA support prompts a rebound

(Click on image to enlarge)

AUD/USD 4-hour chart

On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has bounced off the 30-SMA with a strong bullish candle. At the same time, the RSI has pushed off the pivotal 50 level, indicating a surge in bullish momentum.

The price had paused its rally as the 30-SMA caught up. If bulls maintain this momentum, the price will soon retest the 0.6400 resistance level to make a new high in the bullish trend. A break above this resistance will strengthen the bullish bias. 

However, bears have been puncturing the 30-SMA support since the uptrend started. This is a sign that they are attempting a takeover. If they succeed at any point, the price will break below the 30-SMA to indicate a shift in sentiment. However, the trend will only reverse when the price starts making lower highs and lows. 

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